tourism industry in covid 19

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism industry: A bibliometric research

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Megasari Gusandra Saragih , J. Juliana , Syaifudin S. Kasim , Sulsalman Moita , S. Sarmadan; Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism industry: A bibliometric research. AIP Conf. Proc. 26 March 2024; 2927 (1): 060047. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0192184

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The outbreak of epidemics severely impacts the tourism industry, especially in the short term, as travel movements decrease and the mobility of visitors is severely restricted. According to the latest data from the World Tourism Organization, the COVID-19 outbreak led to a 22% drop in international visitor arrivals in the first three months of 2020. This makes it fascinating to study the impact of the pandemic on the tourism industry. Bibliometrics is used to carry out a quantitative evaluation of publications on the impact of the pandemic on the tourism sector. This study aims to determine the exact impact on each nation and the affected regions. Between 2020 and 2022, the number of publications on the impact of Covid-19 on the tourism business increased significantly, peaking at 81 in 2021. The work of Seongseop (Sam) Kim et al. (2020), which advances our understanding of technology adoption during a health crisis through a range of managerial and theoretical implications, has been referenced 153 times in Scopus. China is the second most productive nation, followed by Poland. India contributed sixteen plants, China twelve, and Poland twelve. Using at least six occurrences as a criterion for the keyword co-occurrence analysis (all keywords), the threshold of 20 keywords is reached. These keywords are divided into three groups that correspond to the three main research areas of the study. After the epidemic, risk perception is the issue most closely linked to Covid-19 and tourism. Risk perception is likely to play a role in tourism decline, as people may be more concerned about the potential risks associated with traveling during a pandemic.

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A Year Without Travel

How Bad Was 2020 for Tourism? Look at the Numbers.

The dramatic effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the travel industry and beyond are made clear in six charts.

By Stephen Hiltner and Lalena Fisher

Numbers alone cannot capture the scope of the losses that have mounted in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. Data sets are crude tools for plumbing the depth of human suffering , or the immensity of our collective grief .

But numbers can help us comprehend the scale of certain losses — particularly in the travel industry , which in 2020 experienced a staggering collapse.

Around the world, international arrivals are estimated to have dropped to 381 million in 2020, down from 1.461 billion in 2019 — a 74 percent decline . In countries whose economies are heavily reliant on tourism , the precipitous drop in visitors was, and remains, devastating.

According to recent figures from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, the decline in international travel in 2020 resulted in an estimated loss of $1.3 trillion in global export revenues. As the agency notes, this figure is more than 11 times the loss that occurred in 2009 as a result of the global economic crisis.

The following charts — which address changes in international arrivals, emissions, air travel, the cruise industry and car travel — offer a broad overview of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic within the travel industry and beyond.

International arrivals in tourism-dependent economies

Macau, a top gambling destination, is highly dependent on travelers, as measured by the share

of its G.D.P. that is generated by tourism. Its international visitor numbers plummeted in 2020:

ARRIVALS IN 2020

The following countries are also among the world’s most dependent on travel, in terms of both their

G.D.P. and their international tourism receipts as a percent of total exports:

U.S. Virgin Islands

The Bahamas

Antigua and Barbuda

Saint Lucia

Cook Islands

0.5 million

Macau, a gambling destination, is dependent on travelers,

as measured by the share of its G.D.P. that is generated by

tourism. Its international visitor numbers plummeted in 2020:

The following countries are also among the world’s most

dependent on travel, in terms of both their G.D.P. and their

international tourism receipts as a percent of total exports:

Before the pandemic, tourism accounted for one out of every 10 jobs around the world. In many places, though, travel plays an even greater role in the local economy.

Consider the Maldives, where in recent years international tourism has accounted for around two-thirds of the country’s G.D.P. , when considering direct and indirect contributions.

As lockdowns fell into place worldwide, international arrivals in the Maldives plunged; from April through September of 2020, they were down 97 percent compared to the same period in 2019. Throughout all of 2020, arrivals were down by more than 67 percent compared with 2019. (Arrival numbers slowly improved after the country reopened in July; the government, eager to promote tourism and mitigate losses, lured travelers with marketing campaigns and even courted influencers with paid junkets .)

Similar developments played out in places such as Macau, Aruba and the Bahamas: shutdowns in February and March, followed by incremental increases later in the year.

The economic effect of travel-related declines has been stunning. In Macau, for example, the G.D.P. contracted by more than 50 percent in 2020.

And the effects could be long-lasting; in some areas, travel is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024.

Travelers passing through T.S.A. airport security checkpoints

The pandemic upended commercial aviation. One way to visualize the effect of lockdowns on air travel is to consider the number of passengers screened on a daily basis at Transportation Security Administration checkpoints.

Traveler screenings plunged in March before hitting a low point on April 14, when 87,534 passengers were screened — a 96 percent decline as compared with the same date in 2019.

Numbers have risen relatively steadily since then, though today the screening figures still sit at less than half of what they were a year earlier.

According to the International Air Transport Association, an airline trade group, global passenger traffic in 2020 fell by 65.9 percent as compared to 2019, the largest year-on-year decline in aviation history.

Daily carbon dioxide emissions from aviation

3.0 million metric tons

Another way to visualize the drop-off in air travel last year is to consider the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by aircraft around the world.

According to figures from Carbon Monitor , an international initiative that provides estimates of daily CO2 emissions, worldwide emissions from aviation fell by nearly 50 percent last year — to around 500 million metric tons of CO2, down from around 1 billion metric tons in 2019. (Those numbers are expected to rebound, though the timing will depend largely on how long corporate and international travel remain sidelined .)

All told, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels dropped by 2.6 billion metric tons in 2020, a 7 percent reduction from 2019, driven in large part by transportation declines.

Yearly revenues of three of the biggest cruise lines

$20 billion

ROYAL CARIBBEAN

Few industries played as central and public a role in the early months of the coronavirus pandemic as did the major cruise lines — beginning with the outbreak aboard the Diamond Princess .

In a scathing rebuke of the industry issued in July, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention blamed cruise companies for widespread transmission of the virus, pointing to 99 outbreaks aboard 123 cruise ships in U.S. waters alone.

While precise passenger data for 2020 is not yet available, the publicly disclosed revenues — which include ticket sales and onboard purchases — from three of the largest cruise lines offer a dramatic narrative: strong revenues in the early months of 2020, followed by a steep decline.

Third-quarter revenues for Carnival Corporation, the industry’s biggest player, showed a year-to-year decline of 99.5 percent — to $31 million in 2020, down from $6.5 billion in 2019.

The outlook remains bleak for the early months of 2021: For now, most cruise lines have canceled all sailings into May or June.

Long-distance car travel, before and during the pandemic

Driving trips at least 50 miles from home, with stays of two hours or more, based on a daily index from

mobile location data.

Trips at least 50 miles from home, with stays of two hours

or more, based on a daily index from mobile location data.

Air travel, both international and domestic, was markedly curtailed by the pandemic. But how was car travel affected?

One way to measure the change is to look at the Daily Travel Index compiled by Arrivalist , a company that uses mobile location data to measure consumer road trips of 50 miles or more in all 50 U.S. states.

The figures tell the story of a rebound that’s slightly stronger than that of air travel: a sharp drop in March and April, as state and local restrictions fell into place , followed by a gradual rise to around 80 percent of 2019 levels.

Difference in visits to four popular national parks, 2019 to 2020

1.0 MILLION

GREAT SMOKY

GRAND CANYON

CUYAHOGA VALLEY

YELLOWSTONE

1.0 million

Another way to consider car travel in 2020 — and domestic travel in the U.S. more broadly — is to look at the visitation numbers for America’s national parks.

Over all, national park visitation decreased by 28 percent in 2020 — to 237 million visitors, down from 327.5 million in 2019, largely because of temporary park closures and pandemic-related capacity restrictions.

The caveat, though, is that several parks saw record numbers of visitors in the second half of the year, as a wave of travel-starved tourists began looking for safe and responsible forms of recreation.

Consider the figures for recreational visits at Yellowstone National Park. After a shutdown in April, monthly visitation at the park quickly rose above 2019 levels. The months of September and October of 2020 were both the busiest on record, with numbers in October surpassing the previous monthly record by 43 percent .

Some national parks located near cities served as convenient recreational escapes throughout the pandemic. At Cuyahoga Valley National Park, 2020 numbers exceeded 2019 numbers from March through December. At Great Smoky Mountains National Park, numbers surged after a 46-day closure in the spring and partial closures through August; between June and December, the park saw one million additional visits compared to the same time period in 2019.

Stephen Hiltner is an editor on the Travel desk. You can follow his work on Instagram and Twitter . More about Stephen Hiltner

Come Sail Away

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Th ree-Year Cruise, Unraveled: The Life at Sea cruise was supposed to be the ultimate bucket-list experience : 382 port calls over 1,095 days. Here’s why those who signed up are seeking fraud charges instead.

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CORONAVIRUS COVERAGE

How hard will the coronavirus hit the travel industry?

The COVID-19 pandemic brings travel to a standstill, causing massive job and revenue losses. Will there be light at the end of the tunnel?

A nearly empty American Airlines flight prepares for takeoff March 18, 2020. Airlines, along with the rest of the travel industry, are facing an uncertain future caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

In the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, few industries have fallen as far and as fast as tourism. The technological revolution that brought us closer together by making travel and tourism easy and affordable—a revolution that fueled one billion trips a year—is helpless in halting a virus that demands we shelter in place.

Taking a snapshot of tourism losses is difficult, as the data changes as quickly as the virus spreads. If the pandemic continues for several more months, the World Travel and Tourism Council , the trade group representing major global travel companies, projects a global loss of 75 million jobs and $2.1 trillion in revenue. Losses come daily; as of April 2, British Airways is reportedly poised to suspend 36,000 staffers .

an employee picking up a single bag in the jet bridge at the Dayton International Airport

An employee at Dayton International Airport picks up a single bag on the jetway bridge March 18, 2020. Airlines project losses of at least $250 billion due to travel restrictions from COVID-19.

Gloria Guevara, the CEO of WTTC, is lobbying governments to offer support to travel companies saying these potential job losses are “bringing real and profound worry to millions of families around the world.”

These photos capture a world paused by coronavirus.

America’s travel industry is among the hardest hit. The U.S. Travel Association projects a loss of 4.6 million jobs through May, a figure likely to increase. U.S. weekly jobless claims skyrocketed to a stunning 6.6 million , doubling in a week and by far the biggest spike in half a century. Tourism decline is a driving reason for job losses in states including Nevada, where Las Vegas casinos and jumbo hotels have gone dark.

On March 29, in an attempt to contain the virus in America, President Donald Trump extended national limits on travel, work, and gatherings of more than 10 people for at least another month—and perhaps into June. Summer vacations could be on hold. “This is the worst time of the year for this to happen,” says Isabel Hill, director of the Commerce Department’s National Tourism Office . “This is the season—spring and summer—when the travel and tourism [industry] makes a significant amount of [its] revenue.”

“The impact on travel is six or seven times greater than the 9/11 attacks,” says Roger Dow, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, which encourages travel to and within the country and represents an industry that generates $2.6 trillion in economic output and supports 15.8 million jobs in the U.S.

Airports including Cologne Bonn in Germany are mostly shut down. The global tourism industry is facing massive job and revenue losses.

With so much at stake, Congress passed a $2 trillion stimulus that couldn’t have come at a more urgent time. The focus is to help those unemployed and to support businesses large and small. But questions remain: Will the aid package be enough as the country slides into a recession, and what does it mean for travelers?

Not saving for a rainy day

Much of the tourism industry built its financial strategy around a trouble-free future, planning for eternal blue skies: open borders; high tourism demand, an $8 trillion industry that defies the ups and downs of the market.

On average, international carriers, including Delta and United Airlines, had less than two months of cash on hand to cover expenses before the coronavirus hit, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In contrast, Apple has enough cash to cover six years of expenses.

With much of its fleet grounded, the airlines’ projected revenue losses could climb to more than $250 billion. That’s at least twice the $113 billion in losses the IATI predicted three weeks ago , before countries started shutting down borders.

Airlines for America (A4A), the trade group representing American and JetBlue among others, as well as UPS and Fedex, say its member companies will lose $87 billion in revenue this year and have already begun borrowing.

Aid packages to the rescue?

Airlines could benefit from several provisions of the stimulus: $425 billion from the Federal Reserve for distressed industries; $75 billion in loans, and $25 billion in direct grants, with the government taking a stake in the companies. Much of the money is conditional—it can’t be used for corporations to buy back stock, a practice that led many companies to be short of cash.

The bailout comes on the heels of a $100 million bill Congress passed weeks before, which provides increased unemployment insurance, paid sick leave, extended food assistance, and free testing for the virus.

“This [aid package] is important and we want [the recovery] to speed up,” says Dow. “Most of the travel industry [consists of] small, mom-and-pop businesses. With small business loans we can help keep their doors open.” The emergency small business loans will be available through June and would be forgiven if companies have to keep their employees on the payroll.

The lodging sector— which has suffered as much as transport , with companies such as Marriott losing as much as 75 percent in revenue—is also a big recipient of the bailout. Hotels (and restaurants) can benefit from the $350 billion lending program for small businesses and from a small adjustment to a federal tax law that could save them as much as $15 billion.

Cruise industry at sea

But cruise companies face an uphill battle to recover. Cruises have become beleaguered poster children of the pandemic as news stories chronicle the plight of ships carrying infected passengers. At press time, Holland America’s Zaandam and Rotterdam ships were finally granted permission to disembark at Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, after the Coast Guard balked at allowing them to dock. On March 8, the Center for Disease Control and the State Department told Americans to stop taking cruises and published a detailed explanation why those ships increase the virus’s “risk and impact.”

Cruise lines have become the face of the pandemic, as news articles chronicle the plight of ships carrying infected passengers searching for ports.

The cruising industry faces an uphill battle to recovery. Because many cruise companies are incorporated overseas, they don’t qualify for U.S. aid money.

The effect on the cruise business has been swift. Companies have lost $750 million in revenue since January, according to reports. Shares of the big fish—Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian—have dropped by 60 to 70 percent. Future losses will mount, and it’s likely that sailings will be postponed at least until July or August.

Unlike the airlines and hotels, cruise companies aren’t eligible for the $500 billion in aid because they don’t count as American enterprises. Major companies locate their primary headquarters overseas, with ships flagged and incorporated in other nations. This means they pay almost no federal taxes and avoid many U.S. regulations.

This photographer returned from a remote island to a world paused by a pandemic.

The cruising industry faces more hurdles in the future. “Governments may have an increased interest in illness reporting and sanitation inspections,” which means more regulations, says Ross Klein, a Canadian academic at the Memorial University of Newfoundland who studies the sector.

A sign of things to come

But there is a glimmer of hope. China, where the pandemic began, offers a glimpse into the future. Now that the pandemic is reportedly under control there and restrictions are being lifted, there are early signs of recovery.

Hotel bookings in China have increased by 40 percent the first week in March, according to Bloomberg, while peak daily flights rose 230 percent from the previous (albeit disastrous) month. Arne Sorenson, CEO of Marriott, says he’s seen initial improvement in his company’s properties in China.

China’s domestic tourism market is gigantic and supports some five billion trips a year. In several surveys the domestic industry says it’s planning for a recovery of 70 percent over the next six months, according to Dr. Wolfgang George Arlt, director of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute . But that recovery largely rests on domestic tourism, with China severely limiting foreign visitors to insure the virus doesn’t resurface.

The United States—the new epicenter of the pandemic—isn’t following China’s trajectory, so the comparison may be more hopeful than realistic. Still, the U.S. Travel Association’s Dow remains optimistic. “Over the long term we will return and come back to business as usual,” he predicts. “People have short memories and there will be a pent up desire to travel.”

Economists, though, are warning that few industries—let alone travel—will return to normal anytime soon.

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Reimagining the $9 trillion tourism economy—what will it take?

Tourism made up 10 percent of global GDP in 2019 and was worth almost $9 trillion, 1 See “Economic impact reports,” World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), wttc.org. making the sector nearly three times larger than agriculture. However, the tourism value chain of suppliers and intermediaries has always been fragmented, with limited coordination among the small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) that make up a large portion of the sector. Governments have generally played a limited role in the industry, with partial oversight and light-touch management.

COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented crisis for the tourism industry. International tourist arrivals are projected to plunge by 60 to 80 percent in 2020, and tourism spending is not likely to return to precrisis levels until 2024. This puts as many as 120 million jobs at risk. 2 “International tourist numbers could fall 60-80% in 2020, UNWTO reports,” World Tourism Organization, May 7, 2020, unwto.org.

Reopening tourism-related businesses and managing their recovery in a way that is safe, attractive for tourists, and economically viable will require coordination at a level not seen before. The public sector may be best placed to oversee this process in the context of the fragmented SME ecosystem, large state-owned enterprises controlling entry points, and the increasing impact of health-related agencies. As borders start reopening and interest in leisure rebounds in some regions , governments could take the opportunity to rethink their role within tourism, thereby potentially both assisting in the sector’s recovery and strengthening it in the long term.

In this article, we suggest four ways in which governments can reimagine their role in the tourism sector in the context of COVID-19.

1. Streamlining public–private interfaces through a tourism nerve center

Before COVID-19, most tourism ministries and authorities focused on destination marketing, industry promotions, and research. Many are now dealing with a raft of new regulations, stimulus programs, and protocols. They are also dealing with uncertainty around demand forecasting, and the decisions they make around which assets—such as airports—to reopen will have a major impact on the safety of tourists and sector employees.

Coordination between the public and private sectors in tourism was already complex prior to COVID-19. In the United Kingdom, for example, tourism falls within the remit of two departments—the Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and the Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport (DCMS)—which interact with other government agencies and the private sector at several points. Complex coordination structures often make clarity and consistency difficult. These issues are exacerbated by the degree of coordination that will be required by the tourism sector in the aftermath of the crisis, both across government agencies (for example, between the ministries responsible for transport, tourism, and health), and between the government and private-sector players (such as for implementing protocols, syncing financial aid, and reopening assets).

Concentrating crucial leadership into a central nerve center is a crisis management response many organizations have deployed in similar situations. Tourism nerve centers, which bring together public, private, and semi-private players into project teams to address five themes, could provide an active collaboration framework that is particularly suited to the diverse stakeholders within the tourism sector (Exhibit 1).

We analyzed stimulus packages across 24 economies, 3 Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Philippines, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. which totaled nearly $100 billion in funds dedicated directly to the tourism sector, and close to $300 billion including cross-sector packages with a heavy tourism footprint. This stimulus was generally provided by multiple entities and government departments, and few countries had a single integrated view on beneficiaries and losers. We conducted surveys on how effective the public-sector response has been and found that two-thirds of tourism players were either unaware of the measures taken by government or felt they did not have sufficient impact. Given uncertainty about the timing and speed of the tourism recovery, obtaining quick feedback and redeploying funds will be critical to ensuring that stimulus packages have maximum impact.

2. Experimenting with new financing mechanisms

Most of the $100 billion stimulus that we analyzed was structured as grants, debt relief, and aid to SMEs and airlines. New Zealand has offered an NZ $15,000 (US $10,000) grant per SME to cover wages, for example, while Singapore has instituted an 8 percent cash grant on the gross monthly wages of local employees. Japan has waived the debt of small companies where income dropped more than 20 percent. In Germany, companies can use state-sponsored work-sharing schemes for up to six months, and the government provides an income replacement rate of 60 percent.

Our forecasts indicate that it will take four to seven years for tourism demand to return to 2019 levels, which means that overcapacity will be the new normal in the medium term. This prolonged period of low demand means that the way tourism is financed needs to change. The aforementioned types of policies are expensive and will be difficult for governments to sustain over multiple years. They also might not go far enough. A recent Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) survey of SMEs in the tourism sector suggested more than half would not survive the next few months, and the failure of businesses on anything like this scale would put the recovery far behind even the most conservative forecasts. 4 See Tourism policy responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19), OECD, June 2020, oecd.org. Governments and the private sector should be investigating new, innovative financing measures.

Revenue-pooling structures for hotels

One option would be the creation of revenue-pooling structures, which could help asset owners and operators, especially SMEs, to manage variable costs and losses moving forward. Hotels competing for the same segment in the same district, such as a beach strip, could have an incentive to pool revenues and losses while operating at reduced capacity. Instead of having all hotels operating at 20 to 40 percent occupancy, a subset of hotels could operate at a higher occupancy rate and share the revenue with the remainder. This would allow hotels to optimize variable costs and reduce the need for government stimulus. Non-operating hotels could channel stimulus funds into refurbishments or other investment, which would boost the destination’s attractiveness. Governments will need to be the intermediary between businesses through auditing or escrow accounts in this model.

Joint equity funds for small and medium-size enterprises

Government-backed equity funds could also be used to deploy private capital to help ensure that tourism-related SMEs survive the crisis (Exhibit 2). This principle underpins the European Commission’s temporary framework for recapitalization of state-aided enterprises, which provided an estimated €1.9 trillion in aid to the EU economy between March and May 2020. 5 See “State aid: Commission expands temporary framework to recapitalisation and subordinated debt measures to further support the economy in the context of the coronavirus outbreak,” European Commission, May 8, 2020, ec.europa.eu. Applying such a mechanism to SMEs would require creating an appropriate equity-holding structure, or securitizing equity stakes in multiple SMEs at once, reducing the overall risk profile for the investor. In addition, developing a standardized valuation methodology would avoid lengthy due diligence processes on each asset. Governments that do not have the resources to co-invest could limit their role to setting up those structures and opening them to potential private investors.

3. Ensuring transparent, consistent communication on protocols

The return of tourism demand requires that travelers and tourism-sector employees feel—and are—safe. Although international organizations such as the International Air Transport Association (IATA), and the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) have developed a set of guidelines to serve as a baseline, local regulators are layering additional measures on top. This leads to low levels of harmonization regarding regulations imposed by local governments.

Our surveys of traveler confidence in the United States suggests anxiety remains high, and authorities and destination managers must work to ensure travelers know about, and feel reassured by, protocols put in place for their protection. Our latest survey of traveler sentiment in China suggests a significant gap between how confident travelers would like to feel and how confident they actually feel; actual confidence in safety is much lower than the expected level asked a month before.

One reason for this low level of confidence is confusion over the safety measures that are currently in place. Communication is therefore key to bolstering demand. Experience in Europe indicates that prompt, transparent, consistent communications from public agencies have had a similar impact on traveler demand as CEO announcements have on stock prices. Clear, credible announcements regarding the removal of travel restrictions have already led to increased air-travel searches and bookings. In the week that governments announced the removal of travel bans to a number of European summer destinations, for example, outbound air travel web search volumes recently exceeded precrisis levels by more than 20 percent in some countries.

The case of Greece helps illustrate the importance of clear and consistent communication. Greece was one of the first EU countries to announce the date of, and conditions and protocols for, border reopening. Since that announcement, Greece’s disease incidence has remained steady and there have been no changes to the announced protocols. The result: our joint research with trivago shows that Greece is now among the top five summer destinations for German travelers for the first time. In July and August, Greece will reach inbound airline ticketing levels that are approximately 50 percent of that achieved in the same period last year. This exceeds the rate in most other European summer destinations, including Croatia (35 percent), Portugal (around 30 percent), and Spain (around 40 percent). 6 Based on IATA Air Travel Pulse by McKinsey. In contrast, some destinations that have had inconsistent communications around the time frame of reopening have shown net cancellations of flights for June and July. Even for the high seasons toward the end of the year, inbound air travel ticketing barely reaches 30 percent of 2019 volumes.

Digital solutions can be an effective tool to bridge communication and to create consistency on protocols between governments and the private sector. In China, the health QR code system, which reflects past travel history and contact with infected people, is being widely used during the reopening stage. Travelers have to show their green, government-issued QR code before entering airports, hotels, and attractions. The code is also required for preflight check-in and, at certain destination airports, after landing.

4. Enabling a digital and analytics transformation within the tourism sector

Data sources and forecasts have shifted, and proliferated, in the crisis. Last year’s demand prediction models are no longer relevant, leaving many destinations struggling to understand how demand will evolve, and therefore how to manage supply. Uncertainty over the speed and shape of the recovery means that segmentation and marketing budgets, historically reassessed every few years, now need to be updated every few months. The tourism sector needs to undergo an analytics transformation to enable the coordination of marketing budgets, sector promotions, and calendars of events, and to ensure that products are marketed to the right population segment at the right time.

Governments have an opportunity to reimagine their roles in providing data infrastructure and capabilities to the tourism sector, and to investigate new and innovative operating models. This was already underway in some destinations before COVID-19. Singapore, for example, made heavy investments in its data and analytics stack over the past decade through the Singapore Tourism Analytics Network (STAN), which provided tourism players with visitor arrival statistics, passenger profiling, spending data, revenue data, and extensive customer-experience surveys. During the COVID-19 pandemic, real-time data on leading travel indicators and “nowcasts” (forecasts for the coming weeks and months) could be invaluable to inform the decisions of both public-sector and private-sector entities.

This analytics transformation will also help to address the digital gap that was evident in tourism even before the crisis. Digital services are vital for travelers: in 2019, more than 40 percent of US travelers used mobile devices to book their trips. 7 Global Digital Traveler Research 2019, Travelport, marketing.cloud.travelport.com; “Mobile travel trends 2019 in the words of industry experts,” blog entry by David MacHale, December 11, 2018, blog.digital.travelport.com. In Europe and the United States, as many as 60 percent of travel bookings are digital, and online travel agents can have a market share as high as 50 percent, particularly for smaller independent hotels. 8 Sean O’Neill, “Coronavirus upheaval prompts independent hotels to look at management company startups,” Skift, May 11, 2020, skift.com. COVID-19 is likely to accelerate the shift to digital as travelers look for flexibility and booking lead times shorten: more than 90 percent of recent trips in China were booked within seven days of the trip itself. Many tourism businesses have struggled to keep pace with changing consumer preferences around digital. In particular, many tourism SMEs have not been fully able to integrate new digital capabilities in the way that larger businesses have, with barriers including language issues, and low levels of digital fluency. The commission rates on existing platforms, which range from 10 percent for larger hotel brands to 25 percent for independent hotels, also make it difficult for SMEs to compete in the digital space.

Governments are well-positioned to overcome the digital gap within the sector and to level the playing field for SMEs. The Tourism Exchange Australia (TXA) platform, which was created by the Australian government, is an example of enabling at scale. It acts as a matchmaker, connecting suppliers with distributors and intermediaries to create packages attractive to a specific segment of tourists, then uses tourist engagement to provide further analytical insights to travel intermediaries (Exhibit 3). This mechanism allows online travel agents to diversify their offerings by providing more experiences away from the beaten track, which both adds to Australia’s destination attractiveness, and gives small suppliers better access to customers.

Government-supported platforms or data lakes could allow the rapid creation of packages that include SME product and service offerings.

Governments that seize the opportunity to reimagine tourism operations and oversight will be well positioned to steer their national tourism industries safely into—and set them up to thrive within—the next normal.

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Margaux Constantin is an associate partner in McKinsey’s Dubai office, Steve Saxon is a partner in the Shanghai office, and Jackey Yu is an associate partner in the Hong Kong office.

The authors wish to thank Hugo Espirito Santo, Urs Binggeli, Jonathan Steinbach, Yassir Zouaoui, Rebecca Stone, and Ninan Chacko for their contributions to this article.

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COVID-19 impact on tourism could deal $4 trillion blow to global economy: UN report

Airplane passenger numbers dropped by 60 per cent in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism could result in a more than $4 trillion loss to the global economy, UN trade and development body UNCTAD said on Wednesday in a report issued jointly with the UN World Tourism Organization ( UNWTO ).

The estimate is based on losses caused by the pandemic’s direct impact on tourism and the ripple effect on related sectors, and is worse than previously expected.

𝗕𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴. @UNCTAD and @ UNWTO have published an update on the effects of #COVID19’s impact on tourism. The crash in international tourist arrivals since the pandemic started could cost the world economy $4 trillion by the end of 2021. https://t.co/b3NJ4CDTwD pic.twitter.com/FbfiupmRoB UNCTAD UNCTAD

Last July, UNCTAD estimated that the standstill in international tourism would cost the global economy between $1.2 trillion and $3.3 trillion.

The steep drop in tourist arrivals worldwide in 2020 resulted in a $2.4 trillion economic hit, the report said, and a similar figure is expected this year depending on the uptake in COVID-19 vaccines.

Global vaccination plan crucial

“The world needs a global vaccination effort that will protect workers, mitigate adverse social effects and make strategic decisions regarding tourism, taking potential structural changes into account,” said Isabelle Durant, the UNCTAD Acting Secretary-General.

“Tourism is a lifeline for millions, and advancing vaccination to protect communities and support tourism’s safe restart is critical to the recovery of jobs and generation of much-needed resources, especially in developing countries, many of which are highly dependent on international tourism,” the UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili added.

Developing countries hit hard

International tourist arrivals declined by about 1 billion, or 73 per cent, last year, while in the first quarter of 2021 the drop was around 88 per cent, the report said.

Developing countries have borne the brunt of the pandemic’s impact on tourism, with estimated reductions in arrivals of between 60 per cent and 80 per cent.

They have also been hurt by vaccine inequity. The agencies said the “asymmetric roll-out” of COVID-19 vaccines has magnified the economic blow to the tourism sector in these nations, as they could account for up to 60 per cent of global GDP losses.

Rebound amid losses

It is expected that tourism will recover faster in countries with high vaccination rates, such as France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.

However, international tourist arrivals will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023 or later, due to barriers such as travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, low traveller confidence and a poor economic environment.

While a tourism rebound is anticipated in the second half of this year, the report expects a loss of between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion in 2021, based on simulations which exclude stimulation programmes and similar policies.

As tourism falls world GDP takes a hit in 2021

Based on GTAP simulations. Drop in global tourist sales are $934 billion in scenario one | $695 billion in scenario two | $676 billion in scenario three.

Likely outcomes

The authors outline three possible scenarios for the tourism sector this year, with the most pessimistic reflecting a 75 per cent reduction in international arrivals.

This scenario sees a drop in global tourist receipts of nearly $950 billion, which would cause a loss in real GDP of $2.4 trillion, while the second reflects a 63 per cent reduction in international tourist arrivals.

The third considers varying rates of domestic and regional tourism. It assumes a 75 per cent reduction in tourism in countries where vaccine rates are low, and 37 per cent reduction in countries with relatively high vaccination levels, mainly developed countries and some smaller economies.

The COVID-19 travel shock hit tourism-dependent economies hard

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Gian maria milesi-ferretti gian maria milesi-ferretti senior fellow - economic studies , the hutchins center on fiscal and monetary policy.

August 12, 2021

The COVID crisis has led to a collapse in international travel. According to the World Tourism Organization , international tourist arrivals declined globally by 73 percent in 2020, with 1 billion fewer travelers compared to 2019, putting in jeopardy between 100 and 120 million direct tourism jobs. This has led to massive losses in international revenues for tourism-dependent economies: specifically, a collapse in exports of travel services (money spent by nonresident visitors in a country) and a decline in exports of transport services (such as airline revenues from tickets sold to nonresidents).

This “travel shock” is continuing in 2021, as restrictions to international travel persist—tourist arrivals for January-May 2021 are down a further 65 percent from the same period in 2020, and there is substantial uncertainty on the nature and timing of a tourism recovery.

We study the economic impact of the international travel shock during 2020, particularly the severity of the hit to countries very dependent on tourism. Our main result is that on a cross-country basis, the share of tourism activities in GDP is the single most important predictor of the growth shortfall in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 crisis (relative to pre-pandemic IMF forecasts), even when compared to measures of the severity of the pandemic. For instance, Grenada and Macao had very few recorded COVID cases in relation to their population size and no COVID-related deaths in 2020—yet their GDP contracted by 13 percent and 56 percent, respectively.

International tourism destinations and tourism sources

Countries that rely heavily on tourism, and in particular international travelers, tend to be small, have GDP per capita in the middle-income and high-income range, and are preponderately net debtors. Many are small island economies—Jamaica and St. Lucia in the Caribbean, Cyprus and Malta in the Mediterranean, the Maldives and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean, or Fiji and Samoa in the Pacific. Prior to the COVID pandemic, median annual net revenues from international tourism (spending by foreign tourists in the country minus tourism spending by domestic residents overseas) in these island economies were about one quarter of GDP, with peaks around 50 percent of GDP, such as Aruba and the Maldives.

But there are larger economies heavily reliant on international tourism. For instance, in Croatia average net international tourism revenues from 2015-2019 exceeded 15 percent of GDP, 8 percent in the Dominican Republic and Thailand, 7 percent in Greece, and 5 percent in Portugal. The most extreme example is Macao, where net revenues from international travel and tourism were around 68 percent of GDP during 2015-19. Even in dollar terms, Macao’s net revenues from tourism were the fourth highest in the world, after the U.S., Spain, and Thailand.

In contrast, for countries that are net importers of travel and tourism services—that is, countries whose residents travel widely abroad relative to foreign travelers visiting the country—the importance of such spending is generally much smaller as a share of GDP. In absolute terms, the largest importer of travel services is China (over $200 billion, or 1.7 percent of GDP on average during 2015-19), followed by Germany and Russia. The GDP impact for these economies of a sharp reduction in tourism outlays overseas is hence relatively contained, but it can have very large implications on the smaller economies their tourists travel to—a prime example being Macao for Chinese travelers.

How did tourism-dependent economies cope with the disappearance of a large share of their international revenues in 2020? They were forced to borrow more from abroad (technically, their current account deficit widened, or their surplus shrank), but also reduced net international spending in other categories. Imports of goods declined (reflecting both a contraction in domestic demand and a decline in tourism inputs such as imported food and energy) and payments to foreign creditors were lower, reflecting the decline in returns for foreign-owned hotel infrastructure.

The growth shock

We then examine whether countries more dependent on tourism suffered a bigger shock to economic activity in 2020 than other countries, measuring this shock as the difference between growth outcomes in 2020 and IMF growth forecasts as of January 2020, just prior to the pandemic. Our measure of the overall importance of tourism is the share of GDP accounted for by tourism-related activity over the 5 years preceding the pandemic, assembled by the World Travel and Tourism Council and disseminated by the World Bank . This measure takes into account the importance of domestic tourism as well as international tourism.

Among the 40 countries with the largest share of tourism in GDP, the median size of growth shortfall compared to pre-COVID projections was around 11 percent, as against 6 percent for countries less dependent on tourism. For instance, in the tourism-dependent group, Greece, which was expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2020, shrunk by over 8 percent, while in the other group, Germany, which was expected to grow by around 1 percent, shrunk by 4.8 percent. The scatter plot of Figure 2 provides more striking visual evidence of a negative correlation (-0.72) between tourism dependence and the growth shock in 2020.

Of course, many other factors may have affected differences in performance across economies—for instance, the intensity of the pandemic as well as the stringency of the associated lockdowns. We therefore build a simple statistical model that relates the “growth shock” in 2020 to these factors alongside our tourism variable, and also takes into account other potentially relevant country characteristics, such as the level of development, the composition of output, and country size. The message: the dependence on tourism is a key explanatory variable of the growth shock in 2020. For instance, the analysis suggests that going from the share of tourism in GDP of Canada (around 6 percent) to the one of Mexico (around 16 percent) would reduce growth in 2020 by around 2.5 percentage points. If we instead go from the tourism share of Canada to the one of Jamaica (where the share of tourism in GDP approaches one third), growth would be lower by over 6 percentage points.

Measures of the severity of the pandemic, the intensity of lockdowns, the level of development, and the sectoral composition of GDP (value added accounted for by manufacturing and agriculture) also matter, but quantitatively less so than tourism. And results are not driven by very small economies; tourism is still a key explanatory variable of the 2020 growth shock even if we restrict our sample to large economies. Among tourism-dependent economies, we also find evidence that those relying more heavily on international tourism experienced a more severe hit to economic activity when compared to those relying more on domestic tourism.

Given data availability at the time of writing, the evidence we provided is limited to 2020. The outlook for international tourism in 2021, if anything, is worse, though with increasing vaccine coverage the tide could turn next year. The crisis poses particularly daunting challenges to smaller tourist destinations, given limited possibilities for diversification. In many cases, particularly among emerging and developing economies, these challenges are compounded by high starting levels of domestic and external indebtedness, which can limit the space for an aggressive fiscal response. Helping these countries cope with the challenges posed by the pandemic and restoring viable public and external finances will require support from the international community.

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COVID-19 impact and survival strategy in business tourism market: the example of the UAE MICE industry

Asad A. Aburumman 1

Humanities and Social Sciences Communications volume 7 , Article number: 141 ( 2020 ) Cite this article

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Business and management

Today the industry of meetings, incentives, conferences and exhibitions, commonly known under the name of MICE, contributes to economic diversification and actively stimulates the rational use of cultural-historical and natural recreational resources. As of 2019, the total contribution of the tourism sector to the GDP of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) equalled 11.5 per cent. More than 2.3 million visitors cited business as their main purpose of travel to Dubai in 2019, marking a two per cent increase compared to 2018. Thus, the UAE MICE industry was among the global leaders before the COVID-19 pandemic occurred. As a result of severe quarantine measures, the majority of destinations all over the world introduced COVID-19-related travel restrictions that were valid until May 2020. In the UAE, like in any other country, the coronavirus pandemic affected every industry, and especially the MICE one. Even though the consequences of COVID-19 have been multiply analysed by many UAE researchers, its global and local impact on the MICE industry, as well as the strategies for MICE companies’ survival, are described insufficiently. This study aimed to investigate the COVID-19 impact on both the global and the UAE MICE markets and identify a competitive survival strategy for tourism companies on the example of those operating in the UAE. The research revealed that under the conditions of harsh travel restrictions and closed borders, the UAE MICE industry is faced with a sharp reduction of demand. Emirati Airlines, hotels, and other tourism-related businesses have experienced significant material losses. In particular, the drop in scheduled departure flights comprised 82%. The multiplicative analysis performed in the course of the study identified the 5P marketing strategy and an outsourcing method as an optimal solution for MICE companies’ survival and recovery. The study results can be used by MICE businesses or researchers using specific company and market data for developing strategies aimed at overcoming COVID-related crisis and increasing the competitiveness of MICE companies in particular and the market as a whole.

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Introduction

The development of MICE industry (meetings, incentives, conferences and events) contributes to economic diversification, stimulates the rational use of cultural and natural-recreational resources, and enables a balanced growth of the whole tourism sector (Manzoor et al., 2019 ; Astakhova, 2019 ). For the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the tourism sector is especially important as a driver of national gross domestic product (GDP). As stated by the Dubai Annual Visitor Report 2019, at the end of 2019, tourism was responsible for contributing an impressive 11.5 per cent in GDP value. Furthermore, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council’s Cities Report, Dubai’s tourism sector was ranked one of ‘Top 10’ strongest economic share generators (Dubai’s Department of Tourism and Commerce Market, 2020 ).

More than 2.3 million visitors cited business as their main purpose of travel to Dubai in 2019, marking a two per cent increase compared to 2018 (Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Market, 2020 ). According to the Dubai Annual Visitor Report, in 2019, Dubai held 301 meetings, conferences and incentives organised by Dubai Business Events, thereby bidding for 595 events in 2020. In the year 2019, Dubai World Trade Center (DWTC) welcomed its record 3.57 million delegates, which declared the visitation growth of up to four per cent from the previous year. Such an increase was driven by 349 MICE and business events, 97 of which were large scale with over 2000 attendees. Since 2019, international participation in DWTC events grew by 15 per cent (equivalent to 1.2 million visitors), underlining the strong benefits the world businesses see in coming to Dubai with the aim of sharing knowledge, networking and accelerating their development (Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Market, 2020 ). Last year, the business tourism events accounted for 3.3% of GDP, which amounts to USD 3.57 billion (Dubai World Trade Centre, 2019 ). The business tourism was a key element in stimulating the national economic growth and in the nearest future was supposed to reach intense development, making the UAE among the central players in the global MICE industry (Rogerson, 2017 ; Dubai Tourism, 2020 ). However, the introduced quarantine ruined these plans.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 4.3 million confirmed cases and more than 290.000 deaths worldwide. It raised fears of an impending economic crisis and recession. Social distancing, self-isolation, and travel restrictions have reduced the workforce in all sectors of the economy and have led to the loss of many jobs (Nicola et al., 2020 ; Tsindeliani, 2019 ).

Due to the lack of a vaccine and very limited treatment options, non-pharmaceutical interventions occurred to be the primary strategy to contain the pandemic. Unprecedented global travel restrictions and appeals to stay at home have caused the most critical disruptions of the global economy since World War II. Given the international travel bans that affect more than 90% of the global population and widespread restrictions on public gatherings and community mobility, tourism largely ceased in March 2020 (Gössling et al., 2020 ). Since the quarantine introduction, millions of jobs in the global tourism sector were lost due to flight, event and hotel cancellations (Siddiquei and Khan, 2020 ).

Given that international arrivals exceeded 1.5 billion for the first time only in 2019, the long-term evolution of tourism is proved to be greatly dependent on a decade of growth since the global financial crisis. Though, this last period of unhindered business tourism development has suddenly come to an end with the COVID-19 (Brouder, 2020 ).

Accompanied by quarantine in most countries and closed borders worldwide, COVID-19 pandemic heavily hit the MICE industry. The majority of domestic and international airlines were forced to cancel their flights due to severe quarantine measures and a lack of passengers, as people were frightened (Hoque et al., 2020 ).

The MICE industry was undermined by government efforts to contain and combat the pandemic. Borders were closed, trips banned, social and business events cancelled, and people were ordered to stay in their homes. By taking these actions, governments around the world sought to strike a balance between maintaining their economies and preventing dangerous levels of unemployment and deprivation. They tried to respond to public health imperatives to prevent the health systems’ collapse and mass deaths (Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020 ).

After months of unprecedented disruptions, the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) reported that the tourist sector begins to revive in some areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. At the same time, travel restrictions remained valid for most global destinations, and business tourism continued to be among the most affected sector of all (World Tourism Organization, 2020a ).

Although Dubai’s tourism sector announced reopening the city for international tourism on July 7, 2020, people worldwide were still afraid of travelling. Consequently, the numbers of international arrivals in Dubai were far from those before March 2020 (Dubai Tourism, 2020 ).

Today, as the COVID-19 pandemic continues and the second wave is forecasted by epidemiologists, political and business leaders are wondering if the recession in the markets and the economy truly signals a recession; how serious the COVID-19 recession will be; what will be the growth and recovery scenarios, and whether there will be any lasting structural impact from the unfolding crisis. However, all the forecasts and indices will not disclose the virus trajectory, the effectiveness of containment measures, and the reactions of consumers and companies. For now, there is no single figure that can reliably reflect or foresee COVID-19’s economic impact, especially on the MICE market dependent on international travel and public events (Carlsson-Szlezak et al., 2020 ). Even though the pandemic has been on the run for several months only, the global and market-related losses are huge. Nevertheless, now it is extremely difficult to assess them due to the lack of sufficient statistical data and unwillingness of some companies, industries and countries, especially the developing ones, to disclose the level of economic decline (Stock, 2020 ).

Despite the existence of numerous studies dedicated to COVID-19 and its estimated effect on economies and industries, poor attention was given to the global and local impact of coronavirus disease on the MICE industry and to strategies for MICE companies’ survival. The MICE industry of the UAE is chosen as a case study due to its leading position at the global MICE market before the pandemic-related crisis occurred.

The aim of the study is to investigate the global and local impact of COVID-19 on the MICE industry and identify a competitive survival strategy for MICE companies taking the UAE business sector as an example.

With the purpose of achieving the goals set, the following tasks were formulated:

Assess the effect of coronavirus pandemic on the global tourism market and MICE industry in the UAE;

Select indicators of economic efficiency to compute the profitability of MICE companies in the UAE;

Suggest a strategy for MICE business survival in the context of outsourcing in a globalised economy heavily influenced by COVID-19 (on the example of the UAE).

Literature review

Business trips and business tours are somewhat similar in terms of event tourism education (Holloway and Humphreys, 2019 ). The difference lies in the very essence of the event, but the mechanisms are generally the same. The fact that Abu Dhabi and Dubai are among the most important business centres of today increases the role of business tourism and its share in the country’s tour production (Zhamgaryan, 2017 ). Numerous conferences, business congresses, and diplomatic visits constitute the major drivers of business tourism (Sovet et al., 2016 ).

Literature on the use of tourism infrastructure and tourism management distinguishes the following principles that most countries rely upon:

Tourism and product topologies, territoriality research.

The presence of private and public travel companies and agencies.

Resources and recreational opportunities, tourist flows and service offers.

Independent choice of tourism agencies.

Communication with a client through outsourcing in business tourism creates an opportunity for world leaders in this industry to quickly grow and solve multiple problems, including the global ones caused by COVID-19 pandemic.

To survive, tourism agencies need to make efficient use of all reserves (Kuznetsov and Kizyan, 2017 ). Ensuring survival through competitiveness is a dynamic process aimed at long-term gain. The main goal of managing corporate competitiveness in the MICE industry is to create sustainable competitive advantages that can recover the position of MICE agencies and enable their financial performance in the post-pandemic environment (Nukusheva et al., 2020 ).

Existing studies on competitiveness in the tourism industry emphasise the importance of infrastructure and support services for environmental sustainability (Croes, 2010 ; Jovanović and Ilić, 2016 ; Kastenholz et al., 2012 ; Mihalicˇ, 2013 ; Reitsamer and Brunner‐Sperdin, 2017 ; Zehrer et al., 2016 ). Managing tourist behaviour also contributes to sector competitiveness (Reisinger et al., 2019 ). Previous researchers relied on a survey of tourism experts and key tourism stakeholders (Andrades and Dimanche, 2019 ). Some scholars made use of a mixed (quantitative-qualitative) method to measure competitiveness of a given industry in Iran (Boroomand et al., 2019 ). Others have developed their own industry competitiveness indices. For instance, some authors used data from the Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index produced by the World Economic Forum in a global analysis of industry competitiveness (Gómez-Vega and Picazo-Tadeo, 2019 ; Nazmfar et al., 2019 ), while others addressed alternative sources of information (Gu et al., 2019 ; Lopes et al., 2018 ).

Using structural equation modelling to the impact of tourism industry recovery and growth on environmental sustainability proves the presence of environmental degradation (Pulido-Fernández et al., 2019 ). The results of PROMETHEE and GAIA analysis from the competitiveness study of Portuguese tourist destinations revealed local competitors with their strengths and weaknesses. Among effective indicators are a sound tourism infrastructure and the potential of tourism destinations to grow through the adoption of public policies or private initiatives (Lopes et al., 2018 ).

The competitiveness of the MICE industry is considered with regard to subjective assumptions about competitiveness and significance of single indicators for sustainable development (Safarova, 2015 ). For example, Porter developed a universal model of micro-level competition. Poon’s framework for tourism competitiveness is built on innovative processes, quality, and privatisation. The WES model is a macroeconomic framework that takes into account tourism policies. In Dwyer’s model, the price component is recognised as a major component. The Crouch-Ritchie model integrates a whole range of tourism competitiveness factors, systematising global forces that pose challenges and open opportunities for tourism (Mazurek, 2014 ). The comparative study of Slovenia and Serbia tourism sectors using a modified IPA matrix identified the areas for improvement and actions for closing the gap between importance and performance of the MICE industry (these relate to the creation and adoption of innovative products) (Dwyer et al., 2016 ).

Materials and methods

With the purpose of analysing the impact of COVID-19 on global and the UAE MICE market, quantitative and qualitative analysis methods were used to evaluate the following data (in relative and absolute values):

World GDP growth rates for 2019, 2020 and 2021;

UAE GDP growth rates for 2019, 2020 and 2021;

International tourist arrivals for 2019 and 2020 (globally and by country);

Global international tourist arrivals from 2000 to 2020;

Global international tourist receipts from 2000 to 2020;

Employment loss in the travel, tourism and aviation industries in 2020;

Losses in travel, tourism and aviation industries in 2020;

Scheduled departure flights in January–December 2019 and January–July 2020 (globally and by country).

The following sources were used to retrieve the above data:

Previous studies;

Reports of the World Bank;

Reports of the World Tourism Organization;

Reports of the World Travel and Tourism Council;

Reports of the OAG company;

Reports of Dubai Corporation of Tourism and Commerce Marketing;

Reports of Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing;

Reports of Dubai World Trade Centre;

Statista Global Business Data Platform;

Official website of UAE-Consulting company;

Reports of the Oxford Analytica consulting firm.

The current analysis framework includes indicators that are interconnected to achieve a more accurate characterisation of the quality of decision-making. The DuPont System of Analysis is designed to compute the Return on Investment. This multiplicative model is frequently used by managers to assess the impact of quantity, price, and nomenclature on the revenue, as well as to analyse the structure of marginal profit, cost, and coefficient ratios (DuPont model, 2015 ). This study integrates the DuPont analysis model with the gross profit from the sale indicator to measure the profitability of MICE companies. The gross profit from the sale helps to assess the impact of the travel service cost on the company’s profitability, improving the overall result of economic analysis. The modified formula has the following form:

Where P MICE represents the MICE company’s profitability (in %);

NP represents the net profit from the sale, USD;

IS represents the income from the sale, USD;

GP represents the gross profit from the sale, USD;

NI represents the net income from the sale, USD.

The study applies a statistical method to collect data on the MICE industry competitiveness and behaviour of consumers (data to develop a forecast). With this method, managers can more efficiently make decisions on business recovery and competitiveness strategies. The dependence between the number of service offers and factors of the MICE industry is expressed via the production function model. This model is built around the number of people employed and the outsourcing strategy spending.

It should be noted that since no reliable data on the MICE industry recovery are available to date, some figures necessary for calculations were used from the pre-pandemic period. As soon as actual data are available, more accurate calculations can be made.

Results and discussion

Covid-19 impact on global and country tourism market.

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (World Tourism Organization, 2020 b), as of May 2020, 100% of destinations worldwide had travel restrictions associated with COVID-19. The pandemic has significantly impacted every sector of the travel and tourism industry: airlines, transportation, cruise lines, hotels, restaurants, attractions (such as national parks, protected areas and cultural heritage sites), travel agencies, tour operators and online travel organisations. Small and medium-sized enterprises and micro-firms, which include a large informal tourism sector, account for about 80 per cent of the tourism sector, and many of them may not survive the crisis without substantial support. This will lead to a domino effect in the entire tourism supply chain, affecting livelihoods in agriculture, fisheries, creative industries and other services. The loss of jobs in the MICE industry has a disproportionate effect on women, youth and the indigenous population. Women-owned and operated MICE companies are often smaller in size and have fewer financial resources to counter the crisis. Women hold such frontline positions in the tourism industry as housekeeping and front desk staff, which puts a particular risk to their health (Twining Ward and McComb, 2020 ).

According to the World Bank, the world GDP is expected to decline by 5.21% in 2020 (the decrease in 2019 comprised 2.38%) and grow by 4.16% in 2021. The dynamics of GDP of the United Arab Emirates will comprise −4.5% (compared to 1.7% growth in 2019), followed by the estimated increase by 1.4% in 2021 (World Bank, 2020 ).

In 2019, the direct, indirect and induced impact of travel and tourism industry accounted for 10.3% of the global GDP (USD 8.9 trillion) and 330 million jobs, or 1 in 10 jobs globally. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2020, the global travel and tourism market is predicted to see a loss of 121 million jobs worldwide and USD 3,435 billion in global GDP (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2020 ).

According to the data of the World Tourism Organization ( 2020a ), the United Nations agency taking charge of the promotion of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, as of June 22, 2020, the global fall in international tourist arrivals comprised 44% compared to 2019 (Fig. 1 ).

Source: developed by the authors based on data adapted from the World Tourism Organization ( 2020a ).

As shown in Fig. 1 , the most significant decrease in terms of international arrivals in January–April of 2020 experienced the Asia and the Pacific region (51%) followed by Europe (44%) and the Middle East (40%). The decline in international arrivals in the Americas and Africa equalled 36 and 35%, respectively (UNWTO, June 22, 2020).

In early May 2020, the UNWTO has outlined three possible scenarios for the MICE industry which indicate a potential decrease in the total number of international tourists from 58 to 78%, depending on when travel restrictions are lifted. Since mid-May, UNWTO has identified an increase in the number of destinations announcing measures to resume tourism. These include the introduction of enhanced safety and hygiene measures and policies aimed at developing domestic tourism (World Tourism Organization, 2020b ).

Geographically, the regions with the biggest relative drop in international tourist arrivals during January–April 2020 are Europe, Australia and New Zealand, and Western, Southern and Southeastern Asia (Fig. 2 ) Footnote 1 .

Source: developed by the authors based on data adapted from the World Tourism Organization ( 2020c ).

According to Fig. 3 , the largest absolute decrease in international tourist arrivals experienced Spain (10.8 million), followed by Thailand (7.3), Turkey (4.4), Singapore, Mexico, Italy, Vietnam (3.6 million each), Austria (3.2) and the United States (3.1) Footnote 2 Footnote 3 .

Despite several countries have positive values of international tourist arrivals (the United Arab Emirates, Belgium, Ireland, Jamaica, Guyana, Cayman Islands and Vanuatu), the data available in UNWTO report for them is for February 2020, when COVID-19-related travelling restrictions were not so severe. The same goes to a number of other countries with low decrease results (Aruba, Bhutan and Martinique).

The international tourist arrivals worldwide showed stable growth in 2000–2019, except for some crisis years with a slight drop: 2003 (SARS pandemic, 3 million) and 2009 (global economic crisis, 37 million). According to the worst-case scenario of the UNWTO, the decrease in 2020 can reach 1.140 billion (Fig. 4 ).

Source: developed by the authors based on data adapted from the World Tourism Organization ( 2020b ).

The global international tourism receipts also experienced constant growth in 2000–2019, with the exception of one year, 2009, when the drop was USD 88 billion (Fig. 5 ). In 2020 the decrease may reach USD 1.170 trillion as per the worst UNWTO scenario.

According to preliminary data, in the first quarter of 2020, the impact of aviation losses can reduce global GDP from 0.02 to 0.12%. Besides, if events develop according to the worst-case scenario, before the end of 2020, these aviation losses can be as high as 1.41–1.67%, with job losses about 25–30 million (Iacus et al., 2020 ).

Now, the UAE is at the forefront in terms of reducing demand for MICE services, as well as for global air travel. Emirati Airlines, hotels, and other travel and tourism-related businesses have experienced significant oversupply and must take decisive actions (Oxford Analytica, 2020 ). The Etihad Airways based in Abu Dhabi and Emirates Airline in Dubai have asked their employees to stay at home due to reduced number of flights thereby not excluding the possibility of layoffs (Siddiquei and Khan, 2020 ).

The global reduction of the scheduled departure flights comprised 2.8 million—from 3.234 million in January 2020 to 0.429 million on July 13, 2020. The anti-leaders in terms of the scheduled departure flights occurred to be the USA (−756 thousand flights), China (−363) and India (−112). For the same period, the UAE experienced a drop in 21 thousand flights, which is a comparatively small amount (Fig. 6 ).

Source: developed by the authors based on data adapted from OAG ( 2020 ).

As shown in Fig. 6 , starting from June, the situation with flights has begun to improve slightly. As to the UAE, the number of scheduled departure flights grew from 1.03 to 1.87 thousand weekly from June 1, 2020, to July 13, 2020.

In relative numbers, the deepest global fall of scheduled departure flights (compared to the same period of 2019) occurred in May 2020 and was 69% (Table 1 ). The countries with the biggest relative decrease were Singapore (97%, May), Spain (94%, April), Hong Kong (94%, April), Germany (93%, April), the United Kingdom (94%, June) and France (92%, May). The UAE had the most notable drop of 82% on June 1, 2020.

Today, more than 50 business events are scheduled for the fall of 2020 in Dubai, but they depend on the global and local epidemiological situation (Dubai Tourism, 2020 ).

Key performance indicators of the MICE industry

The computational results based on pre-pandemic data show that the long-term profitability of the MICE industry can be potentially stable and not influenced by investments in post-pandemic conditions. The rate of return on investment will decrease with a new tourism service. Competitiveness, however, has little relation to profitability ratio and hence is likely to increase.

The present findings are expected to facilitate marketing decision making. However, managers should decide on a strategy for competitiveness that will enable the reduction of MICE services cost, the increase of competitive services, and personnel training. An integrated multiplicative model of profitability that allows the assessment of the given strategy has the following form:

Where, N —cost of services provided, USD;

S —number of those employed in the MICE industry;

P —profit spent on outsourcing strategy development, USD;

i —number of new services.

The results prove the theoretical significance of the selected model (Fisher criterion is equal to 29.01; the coefficient of multiple determination amounts to 0.97; and the relative approximation error is 0.14). The correspondence between results is expressed using the criteria of truth and authenticity.

The elasticity of service provision corresponds to t 1 = 0.287 and t 2 = 0.128, assuming low efficiency. That is, with a per cent increase of profits or employees, the number of offers for MICE services can potentially grow either by 0.287 or by 0.128%, respectively. Consequently, personnel costs and working capital may have little impact on the competitiveness of the MICE industry in the UAE in post-pandemic conditions. These data were processed to develop three theoretical forecast scenarios for the sales of MICE services in post-pandemic conditions (Table 2 ).

The above forecasts based on pre-pandemic data suggest that MICE service sales can increase by 61.6% in 2020–2023. That is, the average annual number is predicted to increase by 25%, gaining USD 35 thousand in 2021. Hence, the economic growth model can serve as an effective tool for improving the tourism development strategy of travel agencies.

The calculations confirm that in pre-pandemic conditions (average tax about 39%; the minimum return 6.9%) when tourism companies used to spend 89% of their net earnings, the volume of tourism services could not be maintained and the gross value added was likely to drop by 3%. Therefore, to ensure better performance and a broader range of tourism services, the minimum rate of return in ideal conditions should be at least 12.9% and the grow value-added tax should not exceed 38.9%.

Strategy for MICE survival and competitiveness

A queuing model was proposed to optimise MICE companies in terms of performance in the post-pandemic market. The Kotler’s extended marketing mix model may serve as a framework of choice for hoteliers, providing a competitive advantage over the existing participants in the MICE market. This model allows evaluating MICE services from various segments of the market by the in-depth profitability and demand analyses.

The five Ps of the marketing mix model are:

Product—a hotel in which a business tourist stays and rests, where a business event is organised, etc.;

Price—pricing policy, discount, price-quality (varies depending on hotels and airlines, plus insurance, travel and event organisation), etc.;

Place—distribution channels, internet platforms, etc.;

Promotion—meetings, incentives, conventions, exhibitions (product launch), state summits, public relations and advertising, etc.;

People—loyal customers and VIP customers, staff, other customers, etc.

It can be argued that meetings and events in hotels that adhere to this marketing model will bring additional income to stakeholders and corporate business travel agencies and hence improve the image of MICE companies. The consequences of this 5P marketing mix model can also be the improvement of the tourism service quality.

Normally, large hotel corporations associate themselves with the image, rather than location. Therefore, when choosing strategies for gaining competitive advantage through outsourcing, the economic and marketing models were used. The underlying sustainable competitive advantages of MICE companies are innovation; service quality control; flexible, adaptive and strong organisational culture; intangible assets (image and business reputation); and consumer behaviour management. Hence, the competitiveness strategy should more focus on these variables. In cross-border tourism, the most promising strategies for competitiveness are those aimed at ensuring consumer loyalty, innovation and adaptation to the external environment like heightened health and safety measures. The MICE industry leaders are increasingly focused on current trends in outsourcing business processes, namely: expanding the boundaries of outsourcing; use of best practices, tools and technologies to ensure better management; the ability to integrate new features with existing systems; ensuring information confidentiality; the transition from individual services to service packages; and global coverage of existing and new markets.

Where there is the opportunity to survive in the pandemic and post-pandemic world and gain competitive advantages by reducing costs while increasing the efficiency of performance, business travel companies turn to outsourcing (It Pulse, 2019 ). Key Account Managers settle issues with the business travel organisation on the key client’s behalf (Suvorova, 2012 ). The main factors of competitiveness are the image and reliability of MICE companies. Competitiveness is achieved by improving the quality of services (Tymchyshyn-Chemerys and Pasternak, 2017 ). The previous studies highlighted the following important variables: total cost of business events; expenditures on restaurants and hotels, transportation, etc.; additional costs associated with increased demand; and value-added income.

The scientific novelty of this study is that it offers an optimal competitiveness strategy for the MICE industry offering to introduce outsourcing practices and the 5P marketing model.

Conclusions

The present research examined the impact of COVID-19 on global and UAE MICE market by way of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The study revealed that in the conditions of severe travel restrictions and closed borders, travel-dependant industries like MICE or passenger air services were significantly hit by the pandemic. In 2020, the COVID-19 quarantine measures are predicted to result in a global loss of 121 million jobs and USD 3,435 billion in GDP.

Now the UAE is at the forefront in terms of reducing demand for MICE services, as well as for global air travel. Emirati Airlines, hotels, and other travel and tourism-related businesses have experienced significant oversupply. Compared to the same period of 2019, the most considerable fall of scheduled departure flights in the UAE occurred on June 1, 2020, and equalled 82%. Despite the fact that the industry has started to recover after weakening anti-epidemic measures, this process can take some time (provided severe anti-pandemic measures will not be restored along with the new wave of COVID-2019).

The choice of survival and competitive strategy for the MICE industry is justified by the study of outsourcing business processes. Outsourcing enables the reduction of operating costs. In these circumstances, a MICE company needs to ‘keep the good work’ by employing competence, establishing a modern communication system, and promoting digitalisation.

The study used multiplicative analysis to evaluate the profitability of the MICE industry and the impact of operating costs on the competitiveness of MICE companies. The 5P marketing model was identified as an optimal choice for surviving and recovering MICE business companies through outsourcing. Since the major resource of organisations under consideration is people and the product, it is advisable to use the competitive marketing strategy when developing a management approach. However, because the product in the MICE industry is a result of multi-stage cooperation, the MICE service provider should simultaneously focus on the external environment.

The study findings can be used by travel agencies, MICE-related companies, or researchers, applying specific company and market data for developing strategies to overcome COVID-related crisis and increase the competitiveness of MICE business.

Due to the lack of reliable post-pandemic data, this research was limited to pre-pandemic information. As soon as actual data are available, more accurate calculations can be made, and theoretical research can be verified. Thus, there are enough opportunities for further research aimed at introducing the results obtained to certain post-pandemic MICE market conditions.

Data availability

Data used are available on request.

The aforementioned geographic regions correspond to the Standard Country or Area Codes for Statistics Use ( 1999 ) of the United Nations (M49 standard) .

The darker the colour in Fig. 1 is, the deeper is the decrease in international tourist arrivals.

There is no data on international arrivals for the markets of countries in grey in Fig. 1 .

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Towards resilience and sustainability: Travel and tourism development recovery

Window view of plane wing during sunset. The travel and tourism sector is slowly beginning to recover.

The travel and tourism sector is slowly beginning to recover. Image: Unsplash/Eva Darron

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The World Economic Forum has published its inaugural Travel and Tourism Development Index .
It focuses on the growing role of sustainability and resilience in travel and tourism growth.
Recovery for the sector is uneven and tourist arrivals in January 2022 were still 67% below 2019 levels, according to the World Tourism Organization.
Here are some key findings from the index on how the sector can build back better.

In 2018, international tourism grew for the ninth consecutive year. Tourist arrivals reached 1.4 billion and generated $1.7 trillion in export earnings, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

Travel and tourism: post-pandemic

The picture looked very different two years later, as COVID-19 lockdowns hit the travel and tourism (T&T) sector hard. In 2020 alone, it faced losses of $4.5 trillion and 62 million jobs , impacting the living standards and well-being of communities across the globe.

While the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines and easing of restrictions means a recovery has now started, it’s proving gradual and uneven largely due to variations in vaccine distribution, and because of Omicron and its BA.2 subvariant. And customers are not only being more cautious when it comes to health, but also around the impact of travel on the environment and local communities.

International tourist arrivals rose by 18 million in January 2022 compared with a year earlier. This equals the increase for the whole of 2021 from 2020, but January’s numbers were still 67% below the same month in 2019, according to the UNWTO.

The war in Ukraine has added to instability and economic disruption for the sector. Against this backdrop, the World Economic Forum’s inaugural Travel and Tourism Development Index reflects the growing role of sustainability and resilience in T&T growth, as well as the sector’s role in economic and social development more broadly.

The TTDI benchmarks and measures “the set of factors and policies that enable the sustainable and resilient development of the T&T sector, which in turn contributes to the development of a country”. The TTDI is a direct evolution of the long-running Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), with the change reflecting the index’s increased coverage of T&T development concepts, including sustainability and resilience impact on T&T growth and is designed to highlight the sector’s role in broader economic and social development as well as the need for T&T stakeholder collaboration to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, bolster the recovery and deal with future challenges and risks. Some of the most notable framework and methodology differences between the TTCI and TTDI include the additions of new pillars, including Non-Leisure Resources, Socioeconomic Resilience and Conditions, and T&T Demand Pressure and Impact. Please see the Technical notes and methodology. section to learn more about the index and the differences between the TTCI and TTDI.

The Travel and Tourism Development Index 2021

The index covers 117 economies, which accounted for around 96% of the world’s direct T&T GDP in 2020. It measures the factors and policies that will enable sustainable and resilient development of the sector.

These include everything from business, safety and health conditions, to infrastructure and natural resources, environmental, socioeconomic and demand pressures.

“As the sector slowly recovers, it will be crucial that lessons are learned from recent and current crises and that steps are taken to embed long-term inclusivity, sustainability and resilience into the travel and tourism sector as it faces evolving challenges and risks,” says the publication, a collaboration between many of the sector’s stakeholders.

The index consists of five subindexes, 17 pillars and 112 individual indicators, distributed among the different pillars, as shown below.

The Travel and Tourism Development index is based on 17 pillars.

On average, scores increased by just 0.1% between 2019 and 2021, reflecting the difficult situation facing the sector. Only 39 out of 117 economies covered by the index improved by more than 1.0%, while 27 declined by over 1.0%.

Nine of the top 10 scoring countries are high-income economies in Europe or Asia-Pacific. Japan tops the ranking, with the United States in second, followed by Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Australia, the United Kingdom and Singapore. Italy completes the top 10, moving up from 12th in 2019.

Viet Nam experienced the greatest improvement in score, with a rise of 4.7% lifting it from 60th to 52nd on the overall index. Indonesia achieved the greatest improvement in rank, increasing its score by 3.4% to climb from 44th to 32nd, while Saudi Arabia achieved the second greatest improvement in rank, moving up to 33rd from 43rd as its score rose by 2.3%.

Rebuilding travel and tourism for a sustainable and resilient future

Here are some of the key findings from the publication:

1. The need for travel and tourism development has never been greater

The sector is a major driver of economic development, global connectivity and the livelihood of some of the populations and businesses most vulnerable to, and hard hit by, the pandemic. In 2019, T&T’s direct, indirect and induced GDP accounted for about 10% of global GDP . For many emerging economies, T&T is a major source of export revenue, foreign exchange earnings and investment. Research has shown that T&T growth can support social progress and create opportunities and well-being for communities, so supporting travel and tourism development and recovery will be critical.

2. Shifting demand dynamics have created opportunities and a need for adaptation

In the shorter term, challenges such as reduced capacity, geopolitical tensions and labour shortages are slowing recovery. However, opportunities have been created in markets such as domestic and nature-based tourism, the rise of digital nomads and “bleisure” travel – the addition of leisure activities to business travel. Many countries have provided incentives to boost domestic tourism. For example, Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong SAR, China, have rolled out programmes that provide discounts, coupons and subsidies for domestic travel. The trends towards more rural and nature-based tourism offer an opportunity for less-developed economies to harness the benefits of travel and tourism given that the distribution and quality of natural assets are less tied to performance in economic development, with natural resources being one of the few pillars where non-high income economies typically outperform high-income countries. The travel and tourism sector stakeholders’ ability to adapt under these conditions highlights its capacity for adaptation and flexibility.

3. Development strategies can be employed to help the sector build back better

Amid the current challenges, shifting demand dynamics and future opportunities and risks, a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient travel and tourism sector can be – and needs to be – built, says the publication. But this calls for thoughtful and effective consideration. It also requires leveraging development drivers and strategies. This can be done by: restoring and accelerating international openness and consumer confidence through, for example, improved health and security; building favourable and inclusive labour, business and socioeconomic conditions; focusing more on environmental sustainability; strengthening the management of tourism demand and impact; and investing in digital technology.

A note on the methodology

Most of the dataset for the Travel & Tourism Development Index (TTDI) is statistical data from international organizations, with the remainder based on survey data from the World Economic Forum’s annual Executive Opinion Survey, which is used to measure concepts that are qualitative in nature or for which internationally comparable statistics are not available for enough countries. The index is an update of the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), but due to the altered methodology, framework and other differences, the 2021 TTDI should not be compared to the 2019 TTCI. To help address this, the 2019 results were recalculated using the new framework, methodology and indicators of the TTDI. Therefore, all comparisons in score and rank throughout this report are between the 2019 results and the 2021 results of the TTDI. Data for the TTDI 2021 was collected before the war in Ukraine.

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UN Tourism | Bringing the world closer

New Data Shows Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism as UNWTO Calls for Responsible Restart of the Sector

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New Data Shows Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism as UNWTO Calls for Responsible Restart of the Sector

All Regions
22 Jun 2020

As tourism slowly restarts in an increasing number of countries, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has released new data measuring the impact of COVID-19 on the sector. UNWTO emphasizes the need for responsibility, safety and security as restrictions on travel are lifted. The Organization also reiterates the need for credible commitment to support tourism as a pillar for recovery.

After several months of unprecedented disruption, the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer reports that the sector is beginning to restart in some areas, most notably in Northern Hemisphere destinations. At the same time, restrictions on travel remain in place in a majority of global destinations, and tourism remains one of the worst affected of all sectors.

Against this backdrop, UNWTO has reiterated its call for governments and international organizations to support tourism, a lifeline for many millions and a backbone of economies.

Restarting tourism in a responsible way a priority

Until tourism’s restart is underway everywhere, UNWTO again calls for strong support for the sector in order to protect jobs and businesses

The gradual lifting of restrictions in some countries, together with the creation of travel corridors, the resumption of some international flights and enhanced safety and hygiene protocols , are among the measures being introduced by governments as they look to restart tourism.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The sudden and massive fall in tourist numbers threatens jobs and economies. It is vital, therefore, that the restart of tourism is made a priority and managed responsibly, protecting the most vulnerable and with health and safety as a the sector’s number one concern. Until tourism’s restart is underway everywhere, UNWTO again calls for strong support for the sector in order to protect jobs and businesses. We therefore welcome the steps undertaken by both the European Union and individual countries including France and Spain to support tourism economically and build the foundations for recovery.”

While April was expected to be one of the busiest times of the year due to the Easter holidays, the near-universal introduction of travel restrictions led to a fall of 97% in international tourist arrivals. This follows a 55% decline in March. Between January and April 2020, international tourist arrivals declined by 44%, translating into a loss of about US$195 billion in international tourism receipts.

Fall of 97% in international tourist arrivals

Asia and the Pacific hit hardest

At the regional level, Asia and the Pacific was the first to be hit by the pandemic and the worst hit between January and April, with arrivals down 51% in that period. Europe recorded the second-largest fall, with a 44% drop for the same period, followed by the Middle East (-40%), the Americas (-36%) and Africa (-35%).

In early May, UNWTO set out three possible scenarios for the tourism sector in 2020. These point to potential declines in overall international tourist numbers of 58% to 78%, depending on when travel restrictions are lifted. Since mid-May, UNWTO has identified an increase in the number of destinations announcing measures to restart tourism. These include the introduction of enhanced safety and hygiene measures and policies designed to promote domestic tourism.

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Two young women of Latin American background standing in front of a boat on a sunny day

For two years, Marcela Ribeiro worked three jobs to save for her dream holiday to Australia.

Like millions of people across the globe, the 35-year-old from Brazil had long wanted to explore the country's world-famous destinations, specifically the Great Barrier Reef, World Heritage-listed rainforest and sandy beaches.

"I worked really, really hard, many jobs, to get here," Ms Ribeiro said.

"The flights were very expensive, so I have to watch everything I spend. I can't afford to eat out in the restaurants every day."

Three young women walk with suitcases at Sydney's Circular Quay

It's been a similar story for William Grbava from Canada and Amelia Mondido from the Philippines, who last week arrived in Australia for a holiday.

"It's expensive here, much more than we were expecting. We have only been able to factor in a short stop in Sydney," Mr Grbava said.

"We just had a beer and a pizza in Circular Quay for $50.

 "What I really wanted to do was drive up the coast to Brisbane, through Byron Bay and those beautiful towns. That's what I did when I was younger. But with the cost of fuel and car rental, it wasn't possible."

Industry yet to recover to pre-COVID levels

It's been more than four years since Australia's borders suddenly closed to the rest of the world and became one of the most isolated destinations on the globe.

COVID-19 wreaked havoc across the country's economy, but nowhere was the pain as instant or more devastating as in the tourism industry.

In 2019, 8.7 million tourists visited Australia from overseas in an industry that was worth $166 billion.

New figures from Tourism Research Australia show there were only 6.6 million international visitors last year, a deficit of more than 2 million compared to 2019 levels.

Victoria experienced the largest loss in international visits at 33 per cent, followed by Queensland at 24 per cent and New South Wales at 22 per cent.

A cruise ship is seen in Sydney's Circular Quay through a hole in a sculpture

Nationally, Chinese visitor numbers — which made up the bulk of visitors to Australia pre-pandemic — slumped to 507,000 last year, down from 1.3 million in 2019.

Figures for the month of February show more than 850,000 people visited Australia, an increase of 257,000 for the same time in 2023, but 7.5 per cent less than pre-COVID levels.

Gui Lohmann from Griffith University's Institute for Tourism said there were a number of reasons for the slow return of international visitors.

"The airfares are significantly high and we are under an inflationary situation with labour and food costs," Professor Lohmann said.

"It could be challenging for Australia to reach above 8 million international visitors in the scenario we are in at the moment."

Man wearing a white business shirt leaning against a railing off a pier.

Professor Lohmann said cost-of-living pressures were also at play in the return of international tourists, as was a "reset" in European thinking.

"Many Europeans believe a long-haul trip is quite damaging to the environment and they're also flying less generally," he said.

"Their domestic airline routes no longer exist [and] have been replaced by train trips."

He said China's ongoing economic problems, the war in Ukraine and United States' election were also having an impact.

"It's a much more complicated world we are facing after the pandemic," he said.

A long road to recovery

Oxford Economics has forecast it could take until 2025-26 before Australian tourism returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Tourism Australia, a government agency that promotes holidays, said the strongest markets since borders reopened had been New Zealand, the United States and the United Kingdom.

"We always knew that the recovery of international travel to Australia would take time, and we have continued to see the steady return of international visitors to our shores," a spokeswoman said.

Maneka Jayasinghe, a tourism expert at Charles Darwin University, said affordability was a key factor in attracting visitors Down Under.

She said the state and federal governments should consider subsidising travel to Australia.

"Measures to reduce costs, such as discounted hotel prices, tourism package deals and food vouchers could be of importance to encourage visitors to Australia," Dr Jayasinghe said.

"Tourism operators were badly hit during COVID so may not be in a financially viable position to provide further perks to visitors, especially the small-scale operators in smaller states and territories and those operating in remote areas."

She said re-establishing links with traditional tourism markets, including Japan, was also a potential solution.

"Countries with a rapidly growing middle class, such as India, could have high potential to grow. Some of the south-east Asian countries, such as Vietnam and Indonesia, could also be attractive due to their proximity to Australia."

A young man and woman pose for a photo infront of some bushes

Dutch tourists Tim Erentsen and Laleh Maleki estimated it would cost them around $16,000 for their three-week holiday in Australia, where they are visiting Sydney, the Whitsundays and Cairns.

"It has been expensive, especially the flights," Mr Erentsen said.

Ms Maleki said the couple had travelled extensively throughout Europe and the US and the cost of hotels and food in Australia was comparable.

"We thought if we were coming all this way and spending the money to get here, we should stay a bit longer, which is adding to the cost," Ms Maleki said.

But despite that extra cost, she said the trip had been worth it.

"We love the nature, it feels very safe here. The food is so good and the people are very friendly."

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Florida News | COVID pandemic slashed return on Florida…

Florida News

Subscriber only, florida news | covid pandemic slashed return on florida tourism marketing efforts, report says.

Spring breakers enjoy Fort Lauderdale beach on March 16, 2024. Florida's tourism-marketing agency saw its return on investment fall after COVID-19 slammed the doors on the tourism industry, but state economists are optimistic the economic benefit will return to pre-pandemic levels. (Mike Stocker/South Florida Sun Sentinel)

TALLAHASSEE — Visit Florida saw its return on investment fall to 58 cents for every $1 spent on marketing as COVID-19 slammed the doors on the state’s tourism industry, according to a new analysis by state economists.

But with tourists back at beaches, theme parks and other attractions, the analysis projects that Visit Florida’s economic return will rebound to pre-pandemic levels.

The analysis, released Tuesday by the Legislature’s Office of Economic & Demographic Research, looked at the 2019-2020, 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 fiscal years. The pandemic hit in early 2020, largely shutting down the tourism industry and having longer-lasting ramifications for issues such as international travel.

Visit Florida, a public-private agency, receives state money to lead tourism-marketing efforts. The report seeks to measure the economic benefit, or return on investment, for money that went to Visit Florida.

The analysis found that the return on investment during the three fiscal years fell dramatically from the prior three years, when it was $3.27 for every $1 spent.

Economists pinned the blame on the pandemic, as employment in the leisure and hospitality industry dropped and tourism numbers plummeted. As an example, visitor counts fell from a then-record 131.069 million in 2019 to 79.397 million in 2020.

“The overall decline in ROI (return on investment) is exacerbated by the precipitous drop in FY 2021-22 to an ROI of 0.11,” the analysis said. “While the overall tourism count had rebounded to near pre-COVID levels by then … the composition was significantly different and still reeled from the effects of the pandemic shock.”

To revive the industry after initial shutdowns, Visit Florida first focused on getting Floridians to visit other parts of the state and luring Americans who would drive from other parts of the country. The agency subsequently tried to bring back international travelers.

Overall tourist counts grew to 121.838 million in 2021, 137.4 million in 2022 and 135.02 million last year. In 2023, numbers of overseas and Canadian travelers remained just below 2019 totals.

Tuesday’s analysis attributed the rebound to the state’s beaches and an increase in advertising by such things as theme parks.

“Based on its share of total tourism advertising spend, Visit Florida is responsible for approximately 3.45 (million), 4.66 (million), and 4.30 million visitors during the 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 fiscal years, respectively,” the analysis said. “The remaining marketing-influenced visitors are attributable to the efforts of the four other major marketing contributors (local public, local private, Visit Florida private, and theme parks).”

A spokeswoman for Visit Florida said Tuesday the agency was reviewing the report.

During the three-year period analyzed, Visit Florida received $50 million a year from the Legislature and additional matching money from private partners. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, the agency received an additional $30 million in federal pandemic-related money.

The analysis estimated Disney, Universal Studios, and SeaWorld were responsible for $787.9 million in marketing during the review period, which “accounted for 33.5 percent of all major tourism marketing efforts in the state.”

In a measure of the impact of COVID-19, Disney saw its attendance go from 58.58 million at the Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios in 2019 to 18.67 million in 2020, according to state figures. SeaWorld Orlando and Busch Gardens Tampa Bay, which are owned by the same parent company, went from 8.82 million to 2.88 million. Universal properties in Florida went from 21.29 million to 8.1 million in the same time.

By 2022, Disney’s attendance was up to 47.06 million, SeaWorld Orlando and Busch Gardens Tampa Bay hit 8.5 million, and Universal properties were at 21.7 million.

The estimated spending by the theme parks didn’t include dollars they provide to Visit Florida, local governments and direct-marketing organizations.

Lawmakers included $80 million for Visit Florida in the proposed budget for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, which will start July 1. The budget has not been sent to Gov. Ron DeSantis for approval.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, economists looked at a 10-year period and said “the current working ROI of 3.3 percent is more reflective of the Visit Florida program over a longer period of time and should be used for all forward-looking analyses.”

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Statistical analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the small and large-scale tourism sectors in developing countries

Pranjal kumar.

Department of HMCT, Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra, Jharkhand India

Pratima Ekka

Associated data.

Data sharing does not apply to this article as no datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has affected the tourism sector by closing borders, reducing both the transportation of tourists and tourist demand. Due to the country-wide lockdown, most activities in the hotel, motel, restaurant, and transportation sectors have been postponed. Consequently, the article investigates four research issues by examining the consequences of global tourism in the private sector before and after COVID-19. As an analytical method, the article suggested qualitative research methodologies to collect information from tourism employees. The opinions of the respondents were gathered through online emails in the questionnaire survey. Further, the article considers people’s future desire for specific tourism destinations based on visitor arrivals. Forecasting tourist demand is an essential component of good and efficient tourism management. Consequently, the article proposes an attention-based long short-term memory model for exact demand forecasting. The experimental findings reveal that the model’s minimal prediction error accuracy is 0.45%, which indicates that it has a more robust prediction effect, a faster convergence rate, and a greater prediction accuracy. Seasonality has emerged as one of the most distinguishing and defining characteristics of the global tourist business. Accordingly, the article mandated to compare the seasonal and non-seasonal effects of the tourist sector throughout the years 2020–2021. Moreover, Governments must analyse the crises’ long-term consequences and, as a result, define the components that constitute government advantages supplied to the tourist sector during the pandemic era. As a result, many governmental policies, especially those about social welfare, may perceive a fresh start during the post-pandemic period, respectively.

Introduction

Tourism has played a good and major role in society in the past and may continue to do so in the future, but it may also have negative socio-economic consequences if properly handled. The tourist business is considerable in terms of economic impact and is growing at a rapid pace. Tourism, the world’s third-largest industry, accounts for 10% of the global GDP and accounts for 5% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Tourist arrivals are expected to drop by 74% in 2020 compared to 2019 according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). The repercussions have been particularly severe for many developing nations in the Asia–Pacific and Western Hemisphere, particularly tiny island states (Apriyanti, 2023 ). Tourism was a huge business before the epidemic, accounting for more than 10% of the worldwide GDP (Spenceley et al., 2021 ). In tourism-dependent countries, the proportion was significantly higher. Despite immunisation initiatives, the prolonged problem continues to dominate international tourism, sparking a discussion over the impact of such a catastrophe on tourist sustainability (Romagosa, 2020 ). Natural catastrophes and health crises have always had an impact on the tourist sector, but the impacts were usually limited and manageable.

One of the significant policy measures to limit the COVID-19 spread has been the establishment of international travel restrictions by numerous governments throughout the world (Ranasinghe et al., 2020 ). International travel restrictions, on the other hand, have been unprecedented and have had a particularly negative impact on the tourist industry (Nhamo et al., 2020 ). Closed borders for non-citizens and non-residents, partial border closures involving restrictions on people arriving from specific countries, or closing specific types of borders, such as air, land, and sea, arrival quarantines, and health certificate requirements are among the restrictions imposed (van der Merwe et al., 2021 ). As a result, the majority of foreign tourism-related operations have come to a halt. International visitor arrivals fell by 20% in the first quarter of 2020, by over 50% in March 2020, and are predicted to decline by another 58% to 78% this calendar year (World Tourism Organization, 2020). This is an essential subject for tourism research and understanding the elements that influence foreign tourists’ destination selections (tourism demand) might be critical for tourism policymakers and providers. According to the traditional international tourism demand model, variables affecting travellers to a destination country include tourists’ income and tourism pricing in a destination against those in the origin country (Baxter and Casady, 2020 ). Countermeasures and suggestions are proposed based on the characteristics of various industries from the policy, economic and financial levels. In terms of trade, studies show that COVID-19 has a certain negative impact on import and export trade, but the impact is only a short-term fluctuation. It is suggested to take corresponding measures in the policy response to rapidly recover trade development and reduce dependence on foreign investment. In terms of employment, COVID-19 has a short-term impact on employment and unemployment, but the impact is large, especially in big cities (Beh & Lin, 2021 ). The other stream of research studies the difficulties faced in the development of tourism, agriculture, transportation, and the timber industry under the influence of COVID-19 (Corak et al., 2020 ). For example, studying the mechanism of COVID-19’s impact on tourism points out that private policy support must be coordinated to sustain pre-COVID-19 operational levels of the tourism and travel sector. While previous studies focused on the impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism industry, little has been done thus far to look beyond these impacts especially since it is a new pandemic (Demirel et al.). This study recognizes the relevance of past research, more research must be conducted on how to mitigate these impacts, as well as how to sustain or keep the sector afloat in the future should comparable pandemics occur (Dube et al., 2021a ), (Dube et al., 2021b ). This study reveals the impact and perceptions of residents regarding tourist activity in historic centres of developing countries before the COVID-19 pandemic and four strategies proposed by private organisations and residents, presenting unprecedented new challenges. Consequently, during and after COVID-19, the article investigates the impact factors of international tourism in the private sector (Dzambazovski and Metodijeski, 2020 ). Travellers will need to be reassured of the safety of travelling, and governments will need to collaborate with the private sector to put in place new standards in terms of safety, hygiene, testing, and procedures. Equally, governments will need to take steps to ensure that destination communities are comfortable that the benefits associated with the return of visitors outweigh any concerns over the potential health risks (Kumar and Nafi, 2020 ) .

This article is arranged as follows. Section 2 provides the literature review and hypothesis development, followed by the problem statement in Sect. 3 . Section 4 is focusing on a comprehensive research methodology; this is followed by Sect. 5 with results. The last Sect. 6 concludes the study of this research article.

Literature survey

Countries are in different phases of the COVID-19 crisis management, and while some countries are adjusting policies to address the gaps and tourism businesses’ needs, others are mindful of the need to start preparing comprehensive tourism recovery plans. While the focus in recent months has rightly been on protecting workers and visitors and supporting business survival, policy makers are also considering the longer-term implications of the crisis on the sector, and the structural transformation which will be needed to build a stronger, more sustainable and resilient tourism economy in the future (McCartney, 2021 ). In the aftermath of the immediate crisis response, the green transition and digital transformation will remain relevant and decisions by policy makers will play an important role in shaping the tourism sector in the post-COVID-19 context (Mekharat and Traore, 2020 ).

Tourist locations have implemented emergency measures and limitations that have had an impact on people’s movement all over the world. People’s movements were halted, and transit between regions was rigorously restricted (Nagaj and Zuromskaite, 2021 ). Beaches and resorts were desolate, towns were deserted, and people’s movements were halted. The global quarantine triggered by COVID-19 has impacted people’s livelihoods and the global economy. Meanwhile, Anca Antoaneta (Vărzaru et al., 2021 ) investigate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the tourism business and the general economy. The article synthesised numerous approaches to ensure the tourist sector’s resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic phase, based on the research findings and exploratory literature research.

(Nagaj and Zuromskaite, 2021 ) investigate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on environmental concerns in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) tourist industry. The goal of this study is to see if this influence has altered in the pandemic era compared to earlier years, and if so, whether it is beneficial or negative (Neupane, 2021 ). Multiple regression analysis is the study approach. According to the findings, the COVID-19 epidemic resulted in a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from tourism in all CEE nations. These reductions are both in comparison to 2019 and to the expected level of emissions that would be attained in 2020 if the countries polled experienced economic development in line with the European Commission’s estimates. The magnitude of the damage varies for each nation, however, there is a positive correlation between tourism development and pollution levels (Ocheni et al., 2020 ).

(Mahmut Demir et al., 2021 ) investigate the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic on the tourist business, assess hotel managers’ perspectives, and provide remedies to hotel difficulties. Face-to-face interviews with hotel management in Bodrum-Mugla were used to gather study data. The interviews were placed between July and September 2020, and data was collected using a semi-structured interview approach. The descriptive analysis approach was used to examine the data. The analysis was carried out as follows: conceptual framework, data modelling, data organisation using tables, and findings interpretation. As a result, it has been shown that the COVID-19 epidemic has an economic, social, and psychological impact on hotel enterprises.

(Beke Kuqi et al., 2021 ) used qualitative approaches such as report design and observation of published data to collect data. This technique allows for qualitative analysis by building narrative and detailed descriptions of the pandemic case in Kosovo and its introduction, which links SARS-CoV-2 to tourism in Kosovo and the diaspora as a major source of remittances. This can build the generation, interpretation, and elaboration of the theory of the impact of Covid19 in the state of Kosovo, together with the interpretation of the results obtained from various reports and research about the period of total closure by Coronavirus, by analysing various parrots and documents provided by qualitative methods.

(Sanda Corak et al., 2020 ) used a qualitative study approach to gather, analyse, and debate the perspectives of tourism specialists on the recovery period and potential changes in Croatian tourism. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with public and private sector tourism practitioners, besides a study of published opinion articles by foreign researchers. The study’s goal was to compare their perspectives on tourism’s short-term recovery including the long-term potential for transforming the industry into one that is more sustainable and inclusive, and that makes the most of regional competitive advantages. The findings of the study indicated more commonalities in views for short-term recovery than differences in attitudes towards the long-term future of tourism in Croatia.

(Mercyann Mukami Muragu et al., 2021 ) investigate the link between COVID-19 and tourism, particularly in underdeveloped nations. The study offers scholars and practitioners an analysis of COVID-19’s influence on Kenya’s social and economic dimensions of tourism, beyond a series of suggestions that might help shape the country’s post-pandemic tourism recovery strategies. From 2007Q1 to 2019Q4, (Rahman et al., 2022 ) analyse the influence of incomes, relative pricing competitiveness, and substitution prices in tourist demand from Indonesia’s six main countries of origin using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. In Indonesia, income levels, competitive pricing, and substitution prices all have a substantial influence on tourism demand. Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Japan, and India are all income elastic, indicating that tourism is a high-end product, except China is not (normal good). Malaysia and China are price elastic, then Japan, India, Singapore, and Australia are less sensitive to price fluctuations. If the price difference is significant, substitute costs may push tourists to other sites.

The objective of the study by (Dedy Hermawan et al., 2022 ) is to find out: (1) What is the pattern of changing interest in travelling during the pandemic? Furthermore (2). What factors influence people’s decision-making when it comes to vacation locations following a pandemic? The study is conducted using a quantitative approach using a survey method and a questionnaire instrument. On account of the epidemic is still ongoing, the Google Form will be utilised and spread online through travel and tourism-related online groups and social media networks. Data analysis will be carried out using quantitative tools such as SPSS or Excel, followed by data visualisation to provide narratives and findings.

(Tatiana V. Skryl et al., 2022 ) not only identify the major trends and challenges in the tourism industry, but also the relevance and importance of changes in other sectors that are important for tourism success, such as changes in tourist offers, and the creation of new and modified tourist products and services. The research is also based on the findings of domestic and international scientists, researchers, and scholars on various aspects and consequences of the COVID pandemic on tourism and its relationships to tourism, specific and selective forms of tourism, and tourism promotion in the digital era through the use of virtual and augmented reality.

(TeresaVillacé-Molinero et al., 2021 ) investigate the travel risk scenario by examining travel risk perception during the pandemic and proposing methods to boost traveller confidence based on the issue-attention cycle. The research was carried out at two different times throughout the epidemic. Initially, the decision-making process of travellers was investigated to determine why they opted to keep or cancel their travel arrangements, additionally what factors impacted their perception of travel risk. An online survey was done using information from 1075 travellers from 46 countries (52 nationalities). The study’s second phase began with the start of Europe’s de-escalation. Twenty-eight foreign hospitality specialists were interviewed for qualitative research. They were questioned about particular steps that may be used to promote tourism on a worldwide scale.

Most of the above studies qualitatively analysed the impact of the epidemic on the tourism industry from the aspects of the shutdown, employee income, and safety. However, few studies have explored the influence of COVID-19 on the growth of small and medium-sized construction enterprises. Therefore, it is important to explore the influence of the epidemic on the growth of small and large-scale sectors listed companies in developing countries to study the impact of COVID-19, as the research results can provide decision support for the healthy and orderly future development of the tourism industry. This improves crisis management strategies to better prepare destinations and the sector more broadly to respond to future shocks.

Economic impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector

COVID-19 instigated losses for practically the entire world economy in 2020, particularly in the tourist industry. The worldwide travel sector came to a standstill as a result of the severe limitations imposed to combat the COVID-19 epidemic. COVID-19’s economic effect is unprecedented in comparison to past crises (Pirtovsek and Senika). Governments’ new and tougher policies exacerbated the tourist sector’s predicament. The most visible methods to combat pandemics were limits on global travellers’ mobility aside from social isolation. Tourist traffic fell by 56% in March 2020, according to the WTO, when the first lockout was implemented and fell even more to 98% in May. The total number of overseas arrivals in 2020 decreased by 74%. The drop in foreign travel has resulted in a global loss of $1.3 trillion in export revenues, which is more than 11 times what was lost during the global economic crisis of 2009. This drop-in international travel has resulted in economic losses in the tourism industry, which total $2 trillion in world product value, or more than 2% of global GDP (Rahman et al., 2022 ) . The COVID-19 epidemic had a particularly harsh economic impact on small and medium-sized businesses, which were forced to shut down their activities completely, resulting in the layoff of some employees (Selim et al., 2020 ).

At the national and regional levels, this pandemic has had an impact on tourism. In this regard, the area most affected by the pandemic is expected to be Asia (Romagosa, 2020 ). More than 7,600 COVID-19 cases have been discovered in the Middle East, with Iran being the country most impacted by the virus. Many nations have been turned away by Saudi Arabia. Even though the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Islam’s holy city, receives approximately 4 million visitors each year, visitation has been halted owing to illness (Omar, 2020). The coronavirus has had a significant impact on European tourism, resulting in a monthly financial loss of almost one billion euros (Reuters, 2020a). Even if the epidemic is finished, the tourist sector is expected to take more than ten months to recover. This inspires researchers to look into the elements that influence foreign tourism in the private sector during and after COVID-19 (Shehawy and Abouzied, 2022 ).

Proposed research methodology

The objective of this research is to examine the relationship between COVID-19 and the tourist sector, in conjunction with how that relationship could alter over time. Considering that the epidemic has affected so many aspects of social and economic life, the volume of news concerning its consequences in different regions of the world has increased. Almost any online news site can provide information about the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in any part of the world (Zhang and Hayashi, 2022 ). One of the main areas of concentration for knowledge about the pandemic’s consequences is tourism. The probable implications of this pandemic on tourism in the short, medium, and long durations were addressed through the analysis of this data, and evaluations were made using the time phenomenon. The study was based on the following research questions in this context.

RO1.Identification of global tourism’s consequences in the private sector before and after COVID-19
RO2. Investigate the procedures that may be taken to ensure people’s desire for certain tourism destinations.
RO3. Examine the influence of COVID-19 on tourism during both seasonal and off-peak seasons.
RO4. Determine the features that influenced the government’s support for the tourist industry during the epidemic.

The flow diagram for the proposed work is shown in Fig. 1 . The information was first gathered using questionnaires to establish the tourist sector’s influence on the private sector. As a result, secondary data sources are the most essential information source for academics. The SPSS programme is used to analyse the data. The tourist sector faced considerable hurdles as a result of local and international travel limitations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, which had a profound influence on the evolution of tourism demand. As a result, this study develops a precise demand forecasting model based on attention-based long short-term memory. Adding geographical factors can dramatically reduce prediction errors, according to empirical studies. Also, look at the tourist attraction’s visitor arrivals throughout the COVID time. Seasonality’s most essential element is that it involves the concentration of visitor flows over a limited period. Subsequently, the research was tasked with comparing the tourist sector’s seasonal and non-seasonal effects from 2020 to 2021. The COVID-19 outbreak has wreaked havoc on the tourist sector in a way that has never been seen before. Governments must assess the long-term implications of crises and, as a result, determine the components of government benefits provided to the tourist industry during the pandemic period.

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Flow diagram of the proposed work

Global tourism in the private sector during and after the pandemic

Tourist is an important aspect of many countries’ economies, and the immediate and massive impact of the coronavirus epidemic on the tourism industry is having an impact on the whole economy. Restrictions on travel, company activities, and people-to-people connections have brought the tourist sector to a halt as governments around the world take extraordinary efforts to contain the virus. Many nations are now starting a new phase in their fight against the virus while also reopening their tourism industries. This is a complicated and tough undertaking, and estimating the economic impact on the tourism industry is difficult. The business community is working to establish specific task teams to provide a coordinated response to the crisis. The WTTC COVID-19 Taskforce, for example, is connecting private sector leaders and international organisations to establish common solutions to reduce the burden on tourist enterprises at the global level. The Global Tourism Crisis Committee, led by the UNWTO, is a public–private initiative to coordinate the pandemic response. On April 1, the committee released recommendations for government action focusing on three key areas: I mitigating the impact on employment and liquidity, ii) protecting the most vulnerable, and iii) preparing for recovery. The provision of critical and timely data and assistance on how to adapt to quickly shifting rules is another significant topic cited by the private sector. Industry associations are also involved in data collection.

Most of the amenities for tourists at tourist sites are provided by private-sector travel and tourism enterprises in collaboration with the governmental sector. Blackpool, for example. Private sector enterprises such as hotels, guesthouses, amusement parks, taxis, restaurants, fast-food outlets, taverns, and nightclubs all try to maximise their profits. Since the emergence of COVID-19, researchers have been conducting studies to examine its effects on the tourism industry. Notable among these studies are the works of Darko et al., 2020 who present and analyse the bailout measures for salvaging the economy during the global pandemic COVID-19 in Slovenia in 2020–21, with an emphasis on the tourism industry. The government has tackled the problem of salvaging both the entire economy and, in particular, the tourism industry over ten so-called Anti-Corona Packages (ACPs), which sought to ensure the liquidity of the economy (tourism) and the preservation of jobs. Ruhana Zareen Gofran et al., 2022 examine the influence of COVID-19 on the liquidity of the tourism industry in the UK, Europe and Spain. Tourism recovery strategies from the pandemic are required with immediate effect to restore the valuation of the tourism companies, given that the negative stock price reaction and lack of liquidity significantly reduce the market value of the tourism firms across Europe. Many nations as a way of curbing the spread of the virus responded by imposing travel restrictions and this severely impacted the tourism industry since when there is travelling tourism ceased to exist. Governments established travel restrictions and forced people to stay at home (Chirisa et al., 2020; Swart & Maralack, 2020). The tourism industry is prone to measures put in place to counteract pandemics because of restricted movements and social distancing (Hall et al., 2020). As a result, the tourism industry was left in a devastating state as when travel is restricted tourism ceases to exist. Whereas Gössling et al. ( 2020 ) looked at the impact of global travel limitations and stay-at-home behaviour on tourism and forecasted global change.

Hypothesis H1

There is a positive correlation between the independent variable Stay Home (SH) and Employment and Liquidity (EL) with the dependent variables spread of Virus (SOV).

The outbreak of this novel virus has affected people’s travel behaviour, putting the entire system in a static mode. Not only the social mobility paused but also severely impacted most of the economic activities associated with the transportation system. Junyi Zhang et al., 2022 discuss the people’s consequences and changes in travel behaviour patterns, which will help public transport service providers understand the challenges and prepare to address them while resuming their services. Despite this, travel spatial and temporal patterns did not return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of March 2022, the taxi journeys remained below half the pre-pandemic level (Sen Li, 2022). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is continuing to have severe effects on tourism-related industries, as safety precautions have become essential to follow. For tourists, the experience of good safety measures plays a very important role in building trust. Muddassar Sarfraz et al., 2022 findings show that the effect of the perceived safety of the social environment, perceived safety of facility and equipment elements, perceived safety of human elements, perceived safety of management elements, and perceived safety of natural environments is significant and positive on the tourist destination choice (TDC). Mohammad Soliman et al., 2023 examine the influence of health consciousness and satisfaction on visitors’ willingness towards robot-delivered tourism and hospitality services usage and the impact of the destination healthcare system and satisfaction on loyalty intentions. Several steps must be prepared by the ministry of tourism and creative economy (kemenparekraf) for national tourism which has decreased due to the small number of visits, so that it can seek economic recovery, especially in the tourism sector, Apriyanti et al., 2023 hoped that they will be able to survive the pandemic by increasing their ability to adapt and innovate and comply with health protocols, and the support of all parties by taking part in recovery efforts, can encourage the Indonesian tourism sector to rise and recover again. Tafadzwa Prasenjit Kumar et al., 2022 attempt to analyse the scope of modifying the destination management system concerning the recovery plan suggested by UNWTO on the global tourism crisis to rebuild the destination economy as sustainable and resilient to combat future challenges. Consequently, that they always provide excellent service that makes them feel comfortable and at ease tourists to stay longer to enjoy the various tourism destinations that we provide, so that the tourism sector can recover and get better again after the pandemic ends.

Hypothesis H2

There is a positive and significant correlation between the independent variables Transportation pattern (TP), and Visitors' Safe (VS) with the dependent variables Boom and Recovery (BR).

While tourist firms recognise that the situation is first and foremost a humanitarian issue, they are urging governments to relax financial restraints on enterprises and maintain open lines of communication between policymakers and industry. As a result, the study recommended qualitative research approaches, using content analysis as the analytical tool. A questionnaire was utilised to collect information for this investigation. The data is collected via an online Google form. In this study, instrument testing was done to eliminate any doubts about which scale to use. Several tests, including reliability and validity tests, were conducted in this study. A validity test is a method of determining whether or not variables match the requirements. The higher a measuring instrument’s validity, the more exact the instrument is on the goal. The SPSS for Windows programme is used to operationalize Pearson’s Product Moment method.

Development of questionnaire for tourism during COVID-19

Tourism is one of the most impacted industries by the COVID-19 epidemic, which has had an impact on economies, lives, public services, and opportunities around the globe. The tourism sector's whole value has been impacted. Questionnaire data is collected from a range of enterprises using online surveys and structured questionnaires. A questionnaire consists of a series of questions intended to extract information from respondents. An online survey is a questionnaire that the target demographic may fill out via the Internet. Most online surveys are developed as Web forms with a database to track replies and statistical tools to provide insights. As a result, the study concludes that to rebuild and create the tourist sector, tourism companies and researchers must analyse and reform the basic principles, key assumptions, and organisational problems connected to the research and practise framework.

Data analysis

A Social Science Statistical Package (SPSS) version 20 was used to evaluate the gathered data. To get demographic information of the respondents, this study chose SPSS, which provides descriptive statistics such as frequencies and %ages. The independent sample t-test was also employed to see if there were any changes in travel motivation between domestic and foreign visitors. This study used ANOVA to see if the independent variable (demographic characteristics) influenced the dependent variable (travel motivation). Before analysis, the data were cleaned to check for missing data, and outliers, and to assess the data distribution pattern. Cronbach’s alpha coefficients were used to look at the internal consistency of the data. CFA was used to examine the content, construct, convergent, and discriminant validity.

Demographic profile of the respondents

Males made up the bulk of the responders (84%), while females made up 25%. In terms of marital status, 59.9% of the respondents were married, followed by single (36.8%) and divorced people (3.2%). The majority of respondents (57.1%) held a bachelor’s degree, followed by a master’s degree (24.4%), a secondary school/diploma degree (14.0%), and a PhD (14.0%) (4.5%). The %ages for each age group are as follows: 18–29 years old (42.0%), 30–39 years old (51.7%), 50–59 years old (6.7%), and above 60 years old (1.7%). Tour planners (12.8%), travel consultants (26.3%), and event managers were the most common responses (27.7%). The demographic profiles are shown in Table Table1 1 .

Demographic distribution of the participants

Online survey questions

The COVID-19 epidemic has been a health and economic disaster that has wreaked havoc on underdeveloped nations, particularly those that rely heavily on tourism. Lockdowns, quarantines, and substantial limitations on national and international transportation have been enforced as governments strive to safeguard their populations. This, along with consumer decisions to limit foreign travel, resulted in a steep decline in the tourist sector, which has serious economic ramifications, especially in nations that rely on it. It is critical to safeguard individuals and preserve a thriving tourist economy. A questionnaire is used to analyse the private tourism sector’s various conditions. Stay Home (ST), Spread of Virus (SOV), Transportation pattern (TP), Boom and Recovery (BR), Visitors Safe (VS) and Employment and Liquidity (EL) are all included in this questionnaire. The respondents were asked a series of questions to study COVID-19’s risk assessment for tourist management. The parts that follow go through the accomplishments. The 30 participants in the pilot study were used to test the questionnaire’s internal consistency. Cronbach’s Alpha was utilised to measure the questionnaire’s reliability more than the construct items’ internal consistency.

Pilot study

It is the way of introducing a research instrument through its paces, such as a questionnaire or interview schedule. The Cronbach’s alpha (or coefficient alpha) test is used to determine if multiple-question Likert scale surveys are trustworthy and consistent.

Cronbach’s alpha reliability is represented in Table Table2. 2 . This yielded six items for Cronbach’s alpha assessment, with a reliability score of 0.846. Table Table2 2 shows that the expected value is larger than 0.8, indicating that the statements’ internal consistency is good.

Internal consistency

Analysis of questionnaire on tourism sector before and after pandemic

The respondents were asked a series of questions to assess risk in the tourist industry and enhance managerial efficiency. A total of 230 individuals took part in the poll. A total of 230 samples were collected, with 142 respondents answering all questions and the remainder 88 unfinished, suggesting that 60.6% of samples are complete and the remaining 39.3% are incomplete. Tourist specialists were the target audience for the poll. The six components of the questionnaire are explored in Table Table3. 3 . The researchers used five Likert scale analyses to build a questionnaire for the study.

Sample questionnaire development

In this section, there are six questionnaires were carried out for the survey. It is based on the impact of the tourism private sector during and after the pandemic. In this segment, most people agreed with the subsequent query which is proven in Table Table3. 3 . The questionnaires are ‘Many employees at travel agencies, airlines, cruises, hotels, restaurants, shopping malls and other tourist attractions have direct interaction with travellers, there are 38 professionals in the industry who agree with the statement. Moreover, ‘Many governments have promoted or regulated the adoption of hygienic techniques such as hand washing, social (spatial) distance, and isolation in tourist areas to restrict the spread of the virus.’ this statement was agreed by 46 respondents. Similarly, “Due to differing degrees of movement limitations, vaccination rates, and traveller confidence, the pace of recovery remains slow and unequal around the globe” this statement has a highly acceptable response from 48 participants.

According to the results of this survey, travellers will need to be reassured of their safety when travelling, and governments will need to partner with the business sector to establish new standards in terms of safety, hygiene, testing, and processes. Governments will also need to take efforts to ensure that destination communities are confident that the advantages of tourists returning outweigh any worries about possible health hazards. This is being done in collaboration with the commercial sector to produce socio-sanitary specifications to guarantee that tourist locations are safe and that they are seen to be safe, which is critical for both domestic and international tourism demand recovery.

Tourism attraction management

Many people consider attractions to be crucial to the tourist process. They are frequently the purpose for visiting a certain location, giving activities and experiences other than a way of gathering consumption indications. "The desire to go to experience the ‘exceptional’ or ‘wonderful’ thing appears to be fundamental in all human societies," Rojek says (1997:52). In terms of tourism, places that are well-endowed with tourist attractions have a competitive edge over those that are not. The competitive advantage, on the other hand, is based on unit productivity and capacity to produce added value from their resources. In this regard, the creation and consumption of attractions have received a lot of attention. The objective is as follows:

To determine which cities in the world are the most popular tourism destinations.
To determine the nature of seasonal tourist arrivals at theme parks.

Material and methods

The research is based on primary data gathered from an extensive field survey of Indian and foreign visitors in a variety of locales. When secondary data is required, it is complemented by primary data. The distance between important tourist attractions in several nations has been compiled online.

Sample design and data collection

To make an appropriate questionnaire, a pilot poll was conducted to determine the most popular tourist destinations. With the assistance of the pilot study, ten tourism hotspots have been selected. A Likert scale was created, and a sample was gathered via a comprehensive questionnaire. Tourists were asked to give points ranging from 1 (lowest beauty) to 7 (best attractiveness) (denote the highest attractiveness). The complete field survey took place in 2022, and the obtained data were analysed.

The ten most popular tourist destinations during the COVID-19 era are depicted in Fig. 2 . Istanbul, Tokyo, Seoul, Paris, Barcelona, London, New York, Osaka, Milan, and Bali are all popular tourist destinations. According to the graph, Tokyo will have the most tourists and visitors in the years 2020–2021. Furthermore, as compared to other cities, Seoul has the fewest attractions.

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Leading cities attractions worldwide during 2020–2021

Figure 3 depicts the top theme parks worldwide, coupled with the most popular tourist destinations in 2019 and 2020. Magic Kingdom, Tokyo Disneyland, Chime Long Paradise, Europe-park, Universal Studios Hollywood, Lotte World, and Ever Land are the prominent theme parks. In comparison to 2019, the COVID-19 impacted period has a lower impact on tourist accommodations.

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Leading theme parks worldwide in 2019 and 2020

Tourism demand forecasting during COVID-19

Various approaches, ranging from linear, autoregressive, and other econometric models to artificial intelligence methodologies, such as feed-forward artificial networks or support vector machines, have been used in various studies for tourism demand forecasting. Machine and deep learning approaches, according to recent tourism demand patterns, are more adaptive and can produce more accurate findings. Much research has confirmed that the tourist arrivals time series is autoregressive. With the improving economic conditions and people’s rising capacity to communicate and socialise, tourism has become a rapidly growing sector. Forecasting tourist demand is critical not only for tourism operators to optimise their profits but also for governments to develop their economic strategies on a worldwide scale. Countries can govern the industries that gain economically from tourism locally based on the projections. As a result, precisely forecasting demand several weeks in advance is critical. Propose a demand forecasting model for the tourist industry that uses Attention-Long Short Term Memory to anticipate demand (Attention-LSTM).

Attention-long short-term memory (Attention-LSTM)

The LSTM attention mechanism is effective in predicting future demand. Consequently, the attention mechanism has been successfully used for machine translation since its introduction, and many researchers have applied it to STPFF. Therefore, capturing the different weights of features extracted from former network layers introduced attention to LSTM in the model.

Typical consideration is that weight scores of distinct time steps are captured using LSTM, which is commonly done by giving higher weight scores to nearby time steps and lower weight scores to those further away. However, traffic forecast models are so sophisticated that giving weight scores solely on recentness is insufficient. They are impacted by various factors such as weather, passenger entrance and leave flows, and network architecture. This is because preliminary test results showed that the latter was more successful, the suggested model automatically scores LSTM output weight. Let matrix a t ∈ r m × n be the LSTM output, where m and n represent the time steps and some features of each time step, respectively. Then, the attention-based output a t ′ can be obtained by

where A is a weight matrix whose shape is identical to that of at , “ ∘ ” denotes the Hadamard product, F represents the fully connected layer (which can be activated by different activation functions such as sigmoid functions), w is the weight matrix of F , and b is the bias. The LSTM approach, similar to all recurrent neural networks, has a chain of repeating modules, at the same time has a different structure in each module, by including four hidden network layers, which interact with each other. The LSTM topology (Fig. 4 ) follows the typical structure of artificial neural networks, by implementing an input and an output layer and many hidden layers in between. All decisions are made in the hidden layer of the LSTM network, which, as stated earlier, includes four sub-layers. The first decision layer in the LSTM structure is the “forget gate” layer, which decides which information should be discarded from the model memory. Note that this layer can output any values ranging from 0 (completely forget) to 1. The “forget” function f t is as follows: f t = σ W f · h t - 1 , x t + b f 3

where σ represents a sigmoid function, W f represents the weight vector of inputs, h t - 1 is the forecast vector from previous periods, x t is the new input vector and b f is the bias of function f . It is worth noting that the bias coefficient is a property of all machine learning algorithms, and it may be adjusted ahead of time or determined during the training process. The bias may be used to calibrate the model and aid in its adaptation to the various scenarios. It is used in the article to calibrate the model to the consequences of specific measures taken during the present crisis, such as aircraft cancellations and varying degrees of lockdown in different regions. As a result, the model’s forecasts are based on the SARS outbreak, which has many similarities to the present situation, just also incorporates the current pandemic’s enhanced severity through bias calibration.

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LSTM attention neural network

The final step is to select an output vector and deliver the forecast, which is done in the "prediction" layer. The output function, o, is

and the prediction will then be

The forecast data will be subjected to parameter analysis to improve the findings’ robustness. MSE and RMSE are model fit characteristics that need distinct models to be developed on subsets of the data presented during COVID.

Data analysis in pre- and post-COVID period

The article makes use of monthly statistics on tourist arrivals. These data cover the SARS epidemic (2019–2021) and extend until February 2022, right before the COVID-19 pandemic breaks out. This is done to guarantee that the projections generated are not influenced by recent events.

In COVID-19, Fig. 5 indicates the change in the %age of international tourists. The COVID-19 pandemic’s destructive impact on worldwide tourism has continued until 2021. According to fresh figures, overseas visitor arrivals fell by 87% in January compared to 2020. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) continues to advocate for tighter cooperation on travel procedures between nations to enable the safe relaunch of tourism and avoid another year of significant losses for the sector, so the view for the remainder of the year remains cautious. In January, foreign arrivals fell the most in Asia and the Pacific (−96%), the area with the greatest degree of travel restrictions. Arrivals in Europe and Africa both declined by 85%, while those in the Middle East fell by 84%. In January, international arrivals in the Americas fell by 77%, following the slightly improved performance in the fourth quarter of the year. Improved country cooperation and harmonised travel and health regulations are critical to restoring tourist trust and allowing international travel to resume safely ahead of the northern hemisphere’s peak summer season."

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Change %age of international tourists in COVID-19

International visitor arrivals before and after COVID-19 are seen in Fig. 6 . Despite the progress shown in the third quarter of the year, the recovery continues to be gradual and unequal around the globe. Due to the fact varied degrees of movement constraints, vaccination rates, and traveller confidence, this is the case. While arrivals in Europe (−53%) and the Americas (−60%) improved from the third quarter of 2019, arrivals in Asia and the Pacific were down 95% from the third quarter of 2019, as numerous locations remained restricted to non-essential travel. In the third quarter of 2019, Africa and the Middle East both saw declines of 74% and 81%, respectively, compared to the previous year. When compared to pre-pandemic levels, this would mean a loss of 260 million international arrivals. Most tourism professionals (61%) expect greater prospects for 2022, according to the current UNWTO Panel of Experts, while 58% realise a recovery in 2022.

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International tourist arrivals before and after COVID-19

Tourism sector impact on seasonal and non-seasonal periods

Seasonality is one of the most salient and significant characteristics of tourism. Tourism is one of the most directly affected sectors in this current crisis and this calls for immediate and long-term responses. With international aviation at a virtual standstill since March, the closure of tourism sites and attractions, the cancellation or postponement of major festivals and events, and restrictions on public gatherings (indoor and outdoor) in many countries, the impact of COVID-19 on global tourism has been overwhelming and immediate. The protocol of Anti-COVID 19 measures during tourism season 2020″, aims at guiding and regulating the necessary preconditions to be undertaken by tourism companies towards restarting the tourism season and protecting employees and visitors. Annual commercial activities can be divided into annual intervals and seasons based on seasonal trends.

Classification 1:

Off-season (January, February, November and December)
Shoulder season (March, April, May, June, October)
Peak season (July, August, September)

Classification 2:

Low season (January, February, March, November and December)
Mid-season (March, April, May, October)
High season (June, July, August, September)

Understanding the key features of seasonality can aid in modifying its occurrence. Seasonality’s primary attribute is that it is predictable and consistent. Seasonality, unlike other obstacles, may be predicted and anticipated. It is more likely to be minimised since it is a foreseeable and virtually dependable difficulty. There is a reason behind everything. The movement of the earth around the sun causes "natural" seasonality in this situation. The four regular seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) are noted for having "Natural" seasonality reasons. Seasonality caused by human social, political, and economic factors is also part of the reason for "institutional" seasonality. The Holy Days, such as Christmas, Easter, Passover, Ramadan, Solstices, and phases of the moon, were the first for "institutional seasonality." Similarly, to how school vacations were developed in the eighteenth century to allow students to assist with agricultural harvesting, the traditional summer school vacation period is today thought to be the major institutional source of tourism seasonality. Meanwhile, institutional seasonality has a lengthy history, and changing these well-established patterns is more difficult. Furthermore, due to the impact of COVID-19, the tourist sector has been impacted by a scarcity of people throughout peak seasons (June, July, August, and September). Tourist locations have implemented emergency measures and limitations that have had an impact on people’s movement all over the world. People’s movements were halted, and transit between regions was rigorously restricted. Beaches and resorts were desolate, towns were deserted, and people’s movements were halted. The global quarantine triggered by COVID-19 has impacted people’s livelihoods and the global economy. The article compares visitor arrivals during the pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 seasons.

Figure 7 shows a comparison of foreign visitor arrivals during seasonal and non-seasonal periods. Seasonal periods are defined as June, July, and September. In the year 2020, seasonal times will have a significantly lower number of visitor arrivals than non-seasonal months. Since 2021, there has been a significant drop in the non-seasonal months of January (−86%), February (−88%), and March (−86), with November and December falling below the 50th %ile.

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Comparison of seasonal and off-seasonal period according to classification 1

According to categorization 2, Fig. 8 illustrates a comparison study of seasonal and non-seasonal international visitor arrivals. High Seasonal periods are defined as June, July, August, and September. In the year 2020, seasonal times will have a significantly lower number of visitor arrivals than non-seasonal months. Since 2021, there has been a significant drop in the non-seasonal months of January (−86%), February (−88%), and March (−86), with November and December falling below the 50th %ile. Seasonality in tourist activities is not exclusive to a single location or country; it may be found in practically any country and destination on the planet. Seasonality is what causes a destination’s tourist and visitor numbers to fluctuate. In consequence, certain places have more tourists and visitors than they can accept during some periods, while others have too few tourists and visitors to the region at other times. (Fig. (Fig.9 9 )

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Comparison of seasonal and off-seasonal period according to classification 2

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Predicted international tourist demand

Government policies for tourism sector during the pandemic

Considering COVID-19 has such a significant influence on tourism and hospitality, stakeholders and enterprises in this sector are in danger, necessitating government assistance during this crisis (OECD, 2020; Fong et al., 2020). The epidemic has slowed international travel, wreaking havoc on many international and local businesses throughout the world and, for this reason, impacting the global economy as a whole. Consumer buying behaviour in Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, altered substantially the epidemic and mobility restrictions, resulting in a 69% decline in non-essential item purchases. Following this, visitor demand for a variety of tourism-related enterprises such as hotels, restaurants, and airlines has decreased. The World Travel and Tourism Council strongly encourages governments to develop policies and programmes to support the suffering tourism and hospitality sector by safeguarding the livelihoods of industry workers and providing financial assistance to enterprises and businesses affected by the crisis.

Many governments and organisations have employed strategies to help the tourist industry recover, including more communication with the business, incentives, and greater health-care monitoring. In China, for example, the government established a variety of policies to boost the tourist sector, which differed by area. Eastern China, which has a higher population density than the rest of the country, prioritised tax cuts and financial incentives, whilst the centre areas prioritised tourist security and inspection (Shao et al., 2020). A country that has been under varying levels of lockdown and limitations for more than a year is in a precarious position. Due to global travel restrictions, the tourist industry has suffered greatly, with thousands of people losing their employment across the country.

The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the vulnerability of tourism workers, but no detailed job loss figures are available that link tourism vulnerability with income inequality. Stephen et al., 2020 provide an in-depth discussion on how COVID-19 affects jobs, man-hours, revenue, income, and livelihood of workers, as well as owners of the tourism industry. Usman Khalid et al., 2021 investigate whether the size of the tourism sector influences the economic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic using data from 136 countries. The findings show that the larger the tourism sector, the larger the economic stimulus package introduced by governments globally. Agus Priyanto et al., 2020 discover the impact of COVID-19 on tourist visits to the Mangunan pine forest in Bantul. The results show that before the Coronavirus, people around the tourist object involved in community building tourism generally had an increased income, but when Corona outbreak hit, both the community in Mangunan Village and Bantul regional government experienced a decline in income. (Ya-Yen Sun et al. 2022) the study evaluates how reduced international tourism consumption affects tourism employment and their income loss potential for 132 countries. With the unequal financial burden across groups, incomes and regions, the collapse of international travel exacerbates short-term income inequality within and between countries.

Hypothesis 1

There is a positive and significant relationship between the independent variable Government Revenue (GR) with the dependent variable Workers' Income (WI).

Altanchimeg Zanabazar et al., 2022 analyses the impact of Work-related stress on job satisfaction and organisational trust in the tourism sector during the unprecedented changes related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the survey show that the Work-related stress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic harms job satisfaction and organisational trust among surveyed employees. (Yasser Moustafa et al., 2022) the study explores the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism traffic, and tourism jobs or employment. The results and remarkable findings will provide long-term permanent explanations needed for effective Egyptian tourism crisis management from a job perspective. Tourism is a labour-intensive industry and one of the first sectors affected by such negativities. Therefore, tourism workers particularly feel many difficulties in such periods. One of these affected occupational groups is the tour-guiding profession. Nilgün Demirel et al., 2022 reveal the tour guides' experiences during the pandemic, which caused a significant sectoral crisis, and the effect of these experiences on their performance. The research results have revealed that professional tour guides were not satisfied with their profession during the pandemic period, and the pandemic process had unfavourable effects on their performance. Thereby, the purpose of this article is to investigate the elements that influence the government benefits provided to tourist sector employees during COVID-19. This was a qualitative examination of a questionnaire utilising a 5-point Likert scale. The study’s hypothesis is as follows:

Hypothesis 2

There is a positive and significant relationship between the independent variables Employment (EM) and Satisfaction (ST) with the dependent variables Registered Tourist Guides (RG).

Internal consistency Cronbach alpha analysis

The reliability analysis is used to examine the internal consistency of the scale employed in the questionnaires and, inevitably, the degree of homogeneity for measuring the same construct or each item. The term "reliable scale" refers to the fact that the individual questions in the overall questionnaire yield consistent responses. Several ways may be used to assess the scale’s dependability. Cronbach’s alpha () is one of the most often used scale reliability measurements. This approach uses only one test administration to assess the dependability of a particular collection. The reliability analysis was carried out in this study using the statistical tool SPSS. The equation may be used to compute the standardised Cronbach’s alpha (1).

where N is the number of items on the test, σ x 2 is the variance of the observed item scores, and σ yi 2 is the sum of all i item variances. Cronbach’s alpha value ranges between 0 and 1. If it is closer to 1, it signifies the high reliability of the used scale.

As located in Table Table4, 4 , an excessive agreement becomes located for ‘Working capital and personal loans would be granted to COVID-affected industries’ with ( N = 51). Further, the respondents indicate ( N = 48) for the “Promote adventure tourism and winter sports”. Also, the best applicable one is agreed through the employees ‘More than 11,000 registered tourists, guides, and travel and tourism stakeholders have received financial assistance’ there are 44 respondents who strongly consider this statement. The findings show two key messages delivered by the government. First, the government was confident in the safety and sanitary measures being implemented in the country and was eager to win the trust of the travellers. Second, the Government was also dedicated to supporting and restoring the highly impacted tourism sector. The investigation uncovered various government-implemented efforts to assist companies during the epidemic, including financial incentives in the form of tax breaks and loans, inclusive of certification as confirmation that the business is safe to conduct operations with tourists.

Questionnaire development according to government policies

Experimentation and result discussion

There were various phases to the data analysis in SPSS statistics. In the first step of data analysis, descriptive analysis and visual depiction of the data were used. The correlation analysis was used to check for stationarity in all variables. Correspondingly, data analysis included applying the LSTM model to forecast future tourism demand. (Table (Table5 5 )

Data collection sources

Statistical analysis

The method of multivariate statistical analysis is used to investigate structural connections. This technique combines factor analysis with questionnaire data to analyse the structural relationship between measured variables and latent constructs, such as Stay Home (ST), Spread of Virus (SOV), Transportation Pattern (TP), Boom and Recovery (BR), Visitors Safe (VS), and Employment and Liquidity (EL). The system set up for this research simulation is shown in Table Table6 6 .

System configuration

For descriptive analysis, regression, and correlation analysis, a structured SPSS-based data collection was employed. The statistics model estimates the relationship between dependent and independent variables. The dependent variables are Spread of Virus (SOV), Boom and Recovery (BR) and the independent variables were Stay Home (SH), Employment and Liquidity (EL), Transportation Pattern (TP), and Visitors Safe (VS).

Table Table7 7 reveals the concepts of descriptive statistics, standard deviations, and zero-order correlations. A descriptive statistic measures the distribution and normalcy. Skewness and kurtosis can be used to calculate it. For SH, TP, VS, EL, SOV, and BR the kurtosis value is closer to 0, indicating that the data is more regularly distributed. The fact that all variables are virtually big negative in the following descriptive statistics indicates that the distribution is very symmetrical or platykurtic (Flat).

Descriptive statistics

From the average means calculated in the descriptive statistics, the researcher used the means to compute correlation analysis, full regression models, and coefficient of determination to establish the true relationship between the variables Spread of Virus (SOV), Boom and Recovery (BR) and the independent variables were Stay Home (SH), Employment and Liquidity (EL), Transportation Pattern (TP), and Visitors Safe (VS).

Multiple regression analysis of variables

For linear regression, SPSS Statistics will create a large number of output tables. Demonstrate the three major tables required to comprehend the findings of the multiple regression process in this part, provided no assumptions were broken. The researcher used a multivariate regression analysis to determine the link between the output quality of the automotive sector and factors. The %age of the overall variation in the dependent variable explained by the independent variable is computed in this test.

The R and R 2 values are listed in Table Table8. 8 . The R-value (the "R" Column) displays the simple correlation and is 0.778, indicating a high degree of correlation. The R 2 number (the "R Square" column) reflects how much the independent variables TP, BR, SH and EL can explain in terms of the total variation in the dependent variable, SOV. The Adjusted R Square score is 0.605, indicating that 61% of improvements in the dependent variable can be explained by the five independent factors, while the remaining 30% of the dependent variable has no other variables in the sample. Durbin Watson d = 1.604, which is halfway between 1.5 < d < 2.5. Assume that the multiple regression data will not have any first-order linear autocorrelation.

Model summary b

a. Predictors: (Constant), TP, BR, EL, SH

b. Dependent Variable: SOV

In ANOVA Table Table9, 9 , the F-ratio determines if the overall regression model is a good match for the data. The table shows that the independent factors predict the dependent variable statistically substantially, indicating that the regression model is a good match for the data. It tests the null hypothesis that the population R of the full regression model is zero. Meanwhile, if p < 0.05, this null hypothesis is rejected from the data.

Regression analysis of ANOVA a

a. Dependent Variable: SOV

b. Predictors: (Constant), TP, BR, EL, SH

Unstandardised coefficients identify how much the dependent variable changes with an independent variable when all other independent variables are held constant, as seen in Table Table10. 10 . This determines whether the population’s unstandardised (or standardised) coefficients are equal to 0 (zero). The "t" and "Sig." columns provide the t-value and associated p-value, respectively. With a p value of > 0.05, the MH coefficients are not statistically significant. Check for multicollinearity in the multiple regression model with tolerance; the results were 0.595, 0.471, and 0.00, respectively, with a tolerance value of < 0.1.

Coefficients a with collinearity statistics

Correlation analysis of tourism management

The Pearson product-moment correlation analysis was employed in this investigation to realize if the independent variables and the dependent variable had any relationship. Correlation coefficients range from 1.0 (plus or minus one). There may be no link between the two items in a coefficient of zero methods, and an extrude in the independent object will not affect the dependent object. Table Table8 8 illustrates the correlation table.

From Table Table11 11 it is depicted that SH can have r = 0.496, correlations with SOV, meaning their relationship was positively correlated and significant. Similarly, the EL factor is also positively correlated with the SOV of r = 0.626, this indicates that it is a positively correlated and significant relationship between the variables. The correlation of r = − 0.77 for TP was negatively correlated and insignificant. Subsequently, find the correlation factors for the dependent variable VS. Here, the correlation factors of VM with BR are positively correlated and significant with the value of r = 0.088 and have an insignificant relationship between the variables. However, only the factor TP was insignificant. Consequently, the dependent variable SOV has a positive correlation with the SH, and EL variables. Meanwhile, the correlation factors for TP have a negative correlation and are insignificant.

Correlation analysis of dependent and independent variables

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed)

Tourism demand prediction using LSTM

Time series models, often known as non-causal quantitative models, believe that a variable may be forecasted without taking into account the causes that influence its level. The data patterns from the past are utilised to forecast future values. Unusually, time series models can be justified only based on theory. Their usage is mostly pragmatic; they frequently produce acceptable forecasts; the research focused on tourism demand forecasting using a statistical model.

To ensure the comprehensiveness and objectivity of the prediction model effect test, five types of error evaluation indexes are used in this study: mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), normalised root mean square error (NRMSE), and mean absolute %age error (MAPE).

Figure 8 illustrates the tourism demand forecasts for the year 2023 for the world, Africa, Europe, Asia/Pacific, and the Middle East. The variance of prediction error with a platform will be lower than the platform’s variance, which will be lower than the variance of a community without a platform. The predicted range is in positive increment with the forthcoming years.

Impact factors of government policies on tourism sector workers

The one-way analysis of variance (one-way ANOVA) test was used for inferential statistics. The standard assumptions of the one-way ANOVA were maintained. The important assumption of the ANOVA is the ‘homogeneity of the variances’. This test was first performed using Levene’s test to check whether the assumption of ‘homogeneity of variances was violated for any variables. If there were no violations, then ANOVA results were used for all the cases. (Table (Table12 12 )

Model fit parameter analysis

Table Table13 13 provides the R -value of simple correlation and is 0.984 (the "R" Column), which indicates a high degree of correlation. The R 2 value (the " R Square" column) indicates how much of the total variation in the dependent variable ST, can be explained by the independent variable, GR, EM, WI and RT. The Adjusted R Square value is 0.276 this indicates that 27% of improvements in the dependent variable could describe the five independent variables and the remaining 70% of the dependent variable does not have the other variables in the sample. The Durbin Watson d = 2.129, which is between two critical values of 1.5 < d < 2.5. Therefore, assume that there is no first-order linear autocorrelation in the multiple regression data.

a. Predictors: (Constant), GR, EM, WI, RT

b. Dependent Variable: ST

The F-ratio in the ANOVA Table Table14 14 tests that the overall regression model is a good fit for the data. The table illustrates that the independent variables statistically significantly predict the dependent variable, i.e. the regression model is a good fit for the data. It evaluates the null hypothesis that the entire regression model has a population R of zero. Meanwhile, p < 0.05, rejects this null hypothesis from the data.

ANOVA a analysis

a. Dependent Variable: ST

b. Predictors: (Constant), GR, EM, RR, RT

Table Table15 15 provides the coefficient table with unstandardised coefficients, which designate how much the dependent variable varies with an independent variable when all other independent variables are held constant. This tests whether the unstandardised (or standardised) coefficients are equal to 0 (zero) in the population. Here, p > 0.05, this concludes that the coefficients are not statistically significant. Further, checking for multicollinearity in the multiple regression model with tolerance, the obtained value was − 0.004, 0.375, − 0.038 and 0.124, generally, the tolerance value was < 0.1 it was satisfied with this condition.

Unstandardised coefficients a analysis

Table Table16 16 shows that RT correlates with ST of r = 0.027, indicating that their association is positively associated and significant. Similarly, the ST component has a positive correlation with the GR of r = 0.137, indicating that the variables are strongly associated and have a substantial association. The correlation for EM was r = − 0.17, which was negative and negligible. Then, given the dependent variable RR, calculate the correlation factors. The correlation factors of GR and WI are positively associated and significant with a value of r = 0.0247, although the relationship between the variables is inconsequential. Only the component EM, however, was insignificant.

Correlations Analysis of Tourism Sector Government Policy Factors

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed)

Research conclusion

The COVID-19 epidemic has initiated uncertainty and spillover effects in nearly every industry, and the lingering crisis in global tourism is a major concern. The tourism sector is massive, accounting for 10.4% of the world's GDP and 10% of global employment. Tourism has long been one of the most important economic drives in the globe. Many communities with limited resources and development alternatives benefit economically from tourism, and it employs a diverse range of individuals with varying talents and educational levels (United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)). Tourism is important because it serves as a market for numerous sectors, including transportation, culture, sport, health, food production, event enterprises, and many more. During the period of April–May 2019–2022, the article performed qualitative research among the major tourist stakeholders, including tourism boards, the hotel sector, tourism agencies, and naval tourism. This study examines the impact of global tourism on the private sector before and after the COVID-19 conference. The epidemic will encourage an increasing number of people, corporations, and governments to embrace new ways of thinking, acting, and operating that are more in line with long-term sustainability.

Subsequently, investigate the procedures in place to guarantee that people's demands for certain tourist destinations are met, in addition to the seasonal and non-seasonal consequences of foreign visitor arrivals. In addition, they agree to report to the World Committee on Tourism Ethics on their adoption of the Code’s principles in their corporate governance throughout the COVID-19 term, based on the results of the questionnaire. For data interpretation, a questionnaire self-administered data collecting and 300 samples were utilised. The instrument’s internal reliability was established to be 0.846. Followed by inferential evaluations, correlation analysis for the benefit of the tourism sector evaluates the Hypothesis Test. The study exposed, for the negatives, the relationship between the variable was negligible, and all the positive outcomes were significantly related to the variable. The simulation five hypotheses fulfilled the correlation statement and it is correlated positively with the dependent and independent variables except for one factor. The results of this study illustrate that the tourism sector manages to recover and provide medical outfits for tourist visitors.

Policy implications

The first measure towards revamping the tourism industry is to rebuild tourists and stakeholders’ confidence in the sector. Governments through publicity campaigns must rebuild public trust in the company. Layoff workers and intending ones must be assured of job security. The financial commitment is also necessary to recapitalise stakeholders and supports the operations of the industry. This will enable them to call back layoff staff, pay outstanding wages, and renovate and service existing facilities and machines/equipment. It will also help operators of the tourism industry slide down charges, thereby stimulating huge travelling and leisure-seeking behaviour among tourists where lockdowns are relaxed. Collaboration between operatives, government, and donor agencies is necessary to meet the financial obligations of the industry after the lockdown. Collaboration here should go beyond finance to sharing ideas and strategies on how to better the industry and survive in the face of future challenges. Economic and social policies that support these collaborations and cooperation among stakeholders should be put in place by governments worldwide. Safety policies should also be put in place to secure group tours. The strategies presented can be applied at the policy level in urban cities. Understanding resident-tourist interaction and impacts will help prepare a better sustainable tourism development plan. Therefore, there must be congruence between tourism development trends and these implementations, especially in developing countries with similar characteristics in their historic centres. The results suggest that policy measures focusing on supporting the tourism sector could be an important means to stimulate the international economy after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Limitations of the study

Finally, the present study has some limitations that guide future studies to be incorporated in their studies. The study does not include the perspective and experience of tourists who visit or those who have already been to tourist places. Future research can analyse the behaviour of satisfaction of tourists who visit tourist places after the COVID-19 lockdown period. The present study has taken not taken any moderating variable and ignored the mediating impact on the model and suggested that future studies should incorporate this aspect in their studies.

Data availability

Declarations.

The authors declare that they have no Conflict of Interest.

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Contributor Information

Pranjal Kumar, Email: ni.ca.arsemtib@lajnarp .

Pratima Ekka, Email: ni.ca.arsemtib@amitarp .

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IMAGES

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Likely outcomes

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International tourism destinations and tourism sources

The growth shock

COVID-19 impact and survival strategy in business tourism market: the example of the UAE MICE industry

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Introduction

Literature review

Materials and methods

Results and discussion

Key performance indicators of the MICE industry

Strategy for MICE survival and competitiveness

Conclusions

Data availability

Acknowledgements

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Towards resilience and sustainability: Travel and tourism development recovery

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Travel and tourism: post-pandemic

The Travel and Tourism Development Index 2021

Rebuilding travel and tourism for a sustainable and resilient future

1. The need for travel and tourism development has never been greater

2. Shifting demand dynamics have created opportunities and a need for adaptation

3. Development strategies can be employed to help the sector build back better

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