pro farmer crop tour methodology

• Contact DTN

• World & Policy
• Business & Inputs

DTN Weekly Oil Update

Oil slides on us dollar strength, chinese demand woes.

Oil futures closest to expiration on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange extended their decline...

North Dakota Regulators Approve Carbon Pipeline

North Dakota's Public Service Commission Grants Siting Permit on CO2 Pipeline

The North Dakota Public Service Commission on Friday granted a siting permit to Summit Carbon Solutions to build a 332-mile segment of a 2,000-mile...

Trump's Tax Policies and Interest Rates

Potential tax cuts and deficit pressures: what trump's agenda means for the economy, smithfield fined $2m for child labor, smithfield reaches $2m settlement with minnesota over child labor violations at packing plant, eia: domestic ethanol output up 0.7% in week ended nov. 8, pfi conference set for january.

Registration Open for Practical Farmers of Iowa Annual Conference

Registration for Practical Farmers of Iowa's annual conference is now open. The conference is set for Jan. 10-11, 2025, at the Iowa Events Center...

2025 Best Young Farmers and Ranchers

15th class of america's best young farmers and ranchers announced, dedication to the farm takes strength, generational differences in farming, ranching can be challenging, healing the invisible wounds of war, mental health help available for rural veterans.

• Special Sections
• Past Issues
• LOG IN or JOIN OUR COMMUNITY

Market Matters Blog

How the crop tour arrives at yield estimates.

Here's a primer on how the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour arrives at its corn yield estimates and soybean pod counts.

It's the first day of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Yield estimates and pod counts are starting to pop up on Twitter. There's a distinct buzz about it, and I'm happy to be out walking through corn that's much taller than I am.

I'm notorious for tweeting field-by-field on crop tours. Some people think that's distorting -- after all, one field doesn't represent what a whole state looks like, or for that matter, what a whole county looks like. I fully agree. However, I like to tweet frequently because it allows me to convey details about each field that might explain why our yield calculation came in where it did or if our estimate doesn't take into account the pest, disease, development or other issues we can see.

So, please remember that each tweet comes from one field and represents that one spot. (You can follow me on the tour's western leg at https://twitter.com/… and crops editor Pam Smith on the east at https://twitter.com/… . For tweets from the whole tour, follow the hashtag #pftour13)

One of the other key things to understand about the crop tour is the methods we use to arrive at yield estimates on corn and our pod counts on soybeans. The tour doesn't issue yield estimates on soybeans because even in a typical growing season (if there is such a thing) late August and early September weather determine how pods fill and how big the beans become. Those variables make it nearly impossible for early tallies like the crop tour's to be accurate. Instead, it computes the number of pods in 3' by 3' square.

For corn, scouts walk into the field, past the end rows. The Pro Farmer editors recommend walking 35 paces past the end rows. They measure the row width and hook a 30' length of rope on a corn stalk. Next, scouts count the number of ears in two rows along the rope, and pull the 5th, 8th and 11th ears from one of the rows.

Then scouts find their way back to the car and husk the ears. They measure the length of the grain on each ear and count the number of kernel rows around. Often, scouts break an ear in half to look at kernel depth and the milk like, but this isn't an official part of the formula.

Now, to the math. Scouts average their ear counts. For instance, one 30' row has 51 ears and the other has 54. They use 52.5 ears in the formula.

Next, scouts average the grain length. If the 5th ear is 7 inches, the 8th ear is 6.5 inches and 11th is 6 inches, scouts will use 6.5 inches. Then they figure the average number of kernel rows, and for the purpose of this example, we'll say all ears have 16 rows of kernels.

They plug it into the formula:

Ear count (52.5) x grain length (6.5) x kernel rows (16) = 5460/row width (30') = 182 bushels per acre.

The soybean calculations, on their face, are simpler than corn. However, two people must work together to take corn yield estimates and on soybeans they take two separate counts and average them together.

Scouts get past the field's end rows and use a measuring tape to determine row width and define a 3' section of a row. They count all of the plants in the row and then pull three random plants from it.

Once they're back at the car, they count pods on each plant and figure an average pod-per-plant count. Then scouts plug their numbers into this formula (I inserted numbers for this example):

Number of plants in 3' (14) x Average number of pods per plant (35) = Pods in 3' (490) x 36 (makes it a square) = 17,640/row spacing (15) = 1176 pods in a 3' by 3' square.

I know it's hard to visualize what those pod counts really mean, especially when you're used to thinking about crops in terms of bushels per acre. One mathematical wizard I know once told me that if you divide the pod count by 27, you get something that approximates yield. In this case, 1176 pods work out to be about 43.5 bpa. I'm neither an agronomist nor mathematician, but if it helps you visualize the tour's findings, feel free to use this trick. I just wouldn't put too much stock in that yield estimate's accuracy.

Katie Micik can be reached at [email protected]

To comment, please Log In or Join our Community .

• Market Matters Blog by DTN Staff
• Technically Speaking by DTN Staff
• Sort & Cull by DTN Staff
• Fundamentally Speaking by Joel Karlin
• Canada Markets by DTN Staff
• Production Blog by Pam Smith
• Ethanol Blog by DTN Staff
• Ag Policy Blog by Chris Clayton
• South America Calling by DTN Staff
• An Urban's Rural View by Urban Lehner
• MachineryLink by Dan Miller
• Editors' Notebook by Greg D.Horstmeier
• Ag Weather Forum by John Baranick

Farm Business

• Minding Ag's Business by Katie Dehlinger
• Privacy Policy
• Terms of Use
• © 2024 DTN, all rights reserved. "DTN" and the degree symbol logo are trademarks of DTN. All other trademarks are the properties of their respective owners.
• Magazine Home
• Columns Home

• MyDTN ™
• The Progressive Farmer

Recommended Browsers:

• Internet Explorer 10 or above
• iPad 2 or above
• iPhone 4 or above
• Google Chrome for Android
• Join Our Community
• Start your free MyDTN demo

Please correct the following errors and try again:

• Remember Me

Crop Tour Faqs

Q: Why don’t you scout areas like western South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, Kansas, southern Illinois? A: We’re all for expanding Crop Tour to areas outside our current 7-state area. The manpower and logistics needed for expansion requires additional leaders and scouts in these additional areas. If you’d like to organize/lead Crop Tour in one of these areas, please contact us: [email protected] .

Q: Do you always pick the best/worst looking fields? A: No. Scouts follow a sampling procedure that is what we call “planned randomness.” More planned randomness is added by walking 35 paces down the main rows to the sample location - this way there’s no way for scouts to tell what the crop condition will be like when they arrive at the field.

Q: How do you measure flooded/damaged fields? A: If the field is planted and is harvestable when scouts make a stop, the field will be measured. If, after following the sampling procedure , the scouts stop in a drowned out or area of the field with no harvestable ears, that field will be measured as a “0.” Prevent plant or other field losses would be removed from the production equation, so we can’t measure those... that essentially would be “double dipping.”

Q: How many scouts enter a field? A: Typically 1 or 2, sometimes 3 scouts enter a field to scout.

Q: What type of professions are the scouts? A: Most scouts are farmers. “Non-farmer” scouts have included professions such as: crop adjusters, ag media, grain elevator staff, grain buyers, department of agriculture staff.

Q: How are scouts selected? A: All scouts are volunteers. Many are Pro Farmer members, but that is not required. Crop Tour is open to anyone to participate.

Q: How do I use Crop Tour data/results? A: When you hear results from the Tour, don’t just compare them to USDA’s August Crop Production report. Compare Tour results to the previous year’s results to figure how much bigger or smaller average yields will be. That comparison has proven to yield the most reliable analysis of fresh data.

Q: Why are your estimates on Friday different than the Crop Tour numbers? A: Pro Farmer’s National Crop Production Estimates that are released annually on the Friday after Crop Tour take into account other factors such as crop maturity, acreage adjustments, areas outside of Crop Tour, historical differences in Tour data versus USDA’s final yields, and other factors.

Q: How do Crop Tour results compare to USDA’s Final yields? A: We’ve studied and analyzed thousands of samples over 30 years of touring, and we’ve calculated the “historical error” of the Tour data. Simply put, we know the Tour results will be different than USDA’s final yield estimate for each state. Fortunately, we know which states the Tour measures “high” or “low,” and we know, on average, by how much.

August 19 - 22 • 7 States • Over 2,000 Fields • 31 Years of Data

The United State's largest and most in-depth late-season look at corn and soybean crops.

Unlock the Power of Crop Tour Data

This comprehensive guide shares all you need to know about this year's Pro Farmer Crop Tour, how the data is collected, and the best way to understand and apply it.

Free Download

By submitting this form you agree to allow Farm Journal Media to send you communications via email. You can unsubscribe at any time by visiting our preferences page which is linked in the footer of all our communications. View privacy policy

Get "subscribers only" Crop Tour reports, data & more.

Pro Farmer subscribers get scout observations, historical data, state-by-state results and more that aren't available to the general public. 

Get 50% off your first 2 months when you use promo code: smart1

Historical Data

Scout Reports

www.profarmer.com   | 1-888-582-9212

The Pro Farmer  Crop Tour’s primary goal is to provide the industry with accurate growing season information about likely corn and soybean yields at the state and regional levels during the upcoming harvest season.

Crop Tour's data-gathering methods are disciplined and produce consistent results. Results from the Tour have a big impact on Pro Farmer Newsletter’s annual crop production estimate released at week’s end. But observations gathered during the Tour can be just as important as the data itself.

This report includes:

• Preview of this year's Crop Tour
• How crop conditions are evaluated
• Understanding & applying  Crop Tour data
• Historical differences by state
• Sampling procedures
• Crop Tour FAQs

Regular price: $40/mo

You pay: $20/mo for your first 2 months!

Subscriber Only Insights

About Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer is the United States’ leading news and marketing organization, providing unbiased market news, analysis and advice to farmers and agribusiness leaders. Included with membership is a subscription to Pro Farmer  Newsletter, the nation's #1 marketing newsletter.

• • Capture higher profits with on-target, practical marketing advice and strategies.
• • Save time with "cut-to-the-chase" analysis and perspective.
• • Stay ahead of Washington policy with behind-the-scenes policy coverage.
• • Spotlight hidden profit opportunities with in-depth coverage of complex farm programs.

Pro Farmer tells farmers what they need to know about the corn, soybean, wheat, cotton, hog, and beef markets. Then, Pro Farmer shares how to profit from it in easy-to-read, everyday language. 

We are excited to share that Oliver Sloup, our expert agriculture analyst at Blue Line Futures, will be participating in this year’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour

Ohio -Dublin, Iowa -Coralville, Indiana – Nobleville, Minnesota – Rochester, Illinois – Bloomington

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour’s mission is to provide the agriculture industry with accurate, timely information on corn and soybean production potential at the state and regional levels as the harvest season approaches. For over 30 years, dedicated scouts have meticulously collected samples from 2,000 fields to offer deep insights into potential yields.

Oliver Sloup is the Vice President and Co-Founder of Blue Line Futures. Hailing from Nebraska, Oliver’s deep roots in the agricultural markets make him uniquely qualified to provide insightful analysis. His passion for helping producers, end-users, and speculators drives his dedication to the industry. Oliver’s extensive experience in the field has honed his ability to deliver consistent, reliable, and actionable research to clients.

During the tour, Oliver Sloup will deliver on-the-ground reports, daily yield estimates, and comprehensive insights to help you stay ahead in the agriculture market.

Stay tuned for his updates and make the most of this valuable information to guide your agricultural decisions!

Inside the Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Gathering the Corn Data

Join Oliver Sloup from Blue Line Futures as he takes you step by step through the Pro Farmer Crop Tour’s method for collecting corn data. Learn how they gather and analyze the data to get a yield estimate right from the field in Marshall County, Indiana!

Check out our Reports brought straight to you from our Crop Tour Analyst

Grain Futures Retreat in Thursdays Trade. More pressure to come.

Grain and Livestock Markets Come Under Pressure in Thursday’s Trade

Grain Markets Are Mixed in the Early Morning Trade

Stay Connected with Oliver

Check out latest updates, pictures, and videos right on your phone! Stay tuned for more!

Sign Up for our Grain Express.

Subscribe to our Grain Express to amplify your trading experience with Blue Line Futures by using our in-house research, click the link to sign up for our free two-week trial.

Get the free Next Generation Farmers report. Download Now.  

Visit website

Marketing kit

< Back to brands

Latest news, media innovator chris seper to lead farm journal’s content and brands teams, lenexa, kan., (september 24, 2024), read more ..., new farm journal website focuses on the present and future of agriculture and food, lenexa, kan., (august 29, 2024), pro farmer projects corn production below, soybean production above usda estimates, lenexa, kan., (august 26, 2024).

Pro Farmer Crop Tour: A Fact-Finding Mission

The 2020 pro farmer crop tour showed the potential of record crops.

By Brian Grete and Sonja Begemann

Ahead of the 2020 Pro Farmer Crop Tour, crop condition ratings were strong. Yet, dryness was expanding across areas of the Corn Belt.

A team of crop scouts set out Aug. 17–20 to assess yield potential. After pulling more than 1,500 corn and 1,500 soybean samples across seven states, the verdict was in on how widespread and intense the drought issues had become in the leading corn-producing state — and other areas of the Corn Belt.

Gut-Wrenching Devastation

On Aug. 10, a damaging derecho storm tore through Iowa and scouts were among the first to see the storm’s wreckage.

“There was just gut-wrenching devastation,” says Kyle Wendland, a farmer and Tour scout. “There’s damaged bins, trees down and the corn seems to have taken it hard, ear counts in some areas were down to 20 to 40.”

The wind-damaged areas were shocking to see, but more surprising still were the areas untouched by the derecho winds. The

damage centered largely on the eastern and east-central part of the state, but even greater yield loss was recorded elsewhere.

“We need to figure out how many bushels we lost to the drought and how many we lost to the derecho,” says Peter Meyer, S&P Global Platt. “In my opinion, the drought is a bigger story than the derecho.”

The entire state of Iowa was at least ‘abnormally’ dry, with extreme drought recorded in the west and west-central regions of the state. Additionally, dry conditions are impacting more than just the Hawkeye state, as most of Nebraska is abnormally dry and the north half of Illinois and Indiana are plagued by dry conditions.

Corn Yield in Jeopardy

Dry conditions led to major tip-back, kernel abortion, stalk desiccation and other agronomic challenges that will affect final yield, not to mention harvestability.

The average of corn samples was 180.82 bu. per acre. The Pro Farmer yield estimate at 177.5 bu. per acre aligns with USDA’s Sep-tember estimate of 178.5.

Of the 1,542 corn samples pulled, 826 (53.6%) were above the Tour average of 180.82 bu. per acre, while 716 (46.4%) were below. Nearly one-third of the samples randomly pulled measured more than 200 bu. per acre.

Late-season drought and the Aug. 10 derecho robbed this year’s corn yield in the Tour states. How much of the remaining yield makes it into bins or storage piles is uncertain, especially in Iowa. While Iowa might pull down the national yield, areas outside of the states sampled on Crop Tour will boost yields this year. The data points to a record national yield — if the crop can hang on.

Big-Time Pod Potential

The 1,525 soybean samples showed a heavily podded and extremely consistent soybean crop. Average Tour pod counts ranged from a low of 1,085.84 in Minnesota to a high of 1,297.93 in Nebraska. (On the Tour, scouts count pods in a 3’x3' square instead of yield be-cause the number of pods it takes to make a bushel is different in each state and varies from year to year.)

Soil moisture ratings were down versus year-ago in all seven states. This year’s soybean crop has more to gain or to lose than any other previous year based on post-Tour weather.

MINNESOTA : Corn showed big, heavy ears with higher ear counts, grain length and kernel rows around than average. Soybean pod counts were high and point to a record soybean yield. Soybeans needed another rain to finish.

SOUTH DAKOTA : This year marks the best corn crop Pro Farmer has seen in the state. Another rain would clinch the deal. Soybeans are uniform, and with rain the crop could be a monster.

NEBRASKA : Irrigated yields were decent but not shockingly high. Dryland yields likely won’t drag down the average. Soybean fields were clean, but need a rain to get across the finish line without aborting pods — risk is to the downside.

IOWA : Western Iowa yields were diminishing because of drought. Wind did destroy some of the crops across a wide swath of the state. While some will be harvested, further yield loss is likely. Soybeans were in desperate need of a rain; soil moisture was down 46%.

ILLINOIS : Soybean pods were consistent, but needed rain to finish strong. Corn wasn’t looking like a bin-buster. Ear counts were below average, but grain length could be a savior with good weather. Corn had more to lose than to gain.

INDIANA : Corn was variable, but rains could help along with mild weather. About one-third of the state’s corn crop still needed time to develop. Soybeans were consistent and well podded but dry. Another rain would help fill flat pods.

OHIO : Corn is too variable, because of dry areas, to beat the 2018 record of 187 bu. per acre. Late-season rain could be the deciding factor on which way corn yields go. Soybeans also need a rain to ensure the crop beats its 2018 record of 56 bu. per acre.